Monday
The Weather
With low pressure over Biscay and the mouth of the Channel, we are in for another day of thundery showers developing over France and then threatening to affect the islands later. Once again it will be a bit of a hit and miss affair, we might get a few good soakings, or we might just stay dry and enjoy more dramatic cloudscapes, perhaps hear a distant rumble or two. The breeze will be a gentle SE’ly all day, so all areas (but particularly the west and the north) will feel very comfortable, with the temperature peaking at around 17°C.
Surf and the Water
The west coast waves should be small and clean, much like some of those lovely moments we had at the weekend. Great for swimming and paddle boarding too. The tidal range will be a tiny one again, just under 7m high at 3pm.
Tuesday
The Weather
A slight change in the position of the low-pressure system will mean that the breeze veers to a S’ly direction. That change will be barely noticeable to be honest, and likewise there will barely be any change in the likelihood of showers. So once again, you will probably be able to hang your washing out with success, but you will certainly have to keep an eye on the sky and be prepared to do some rapid unpegging if necessary.
Surf and the Water
The surf will only be one foot and weak, but it will still be really clean, so the younger kids could still have some fun with it in the late afternoon and evening High water, will be about 7.2m at 4pm.
Wednesday to Friday
The Weather
Over these three days, the low pressure system will gradually wander off to the North Sea, where it will finally die. The anticlockwise flow around the low means that the breeze will now be a WNW’ly. It will still be light, so it won't feel desperately different to the previous days, except that now the east and south coasts will be the warmest areas The max temperatures will still be in the high teens, but the shower risk will probably increase through Wednesday and Thursday, with a slim chance of as much as 10-20mm of rainfall on Thursday. Friday should quickly become dry and sunny though, just after one final splash in the morning.
Surf and the Water
The tides will be getting bigger day by day, until they are about 8m high on Friday (at around 6am and 6pm). No real surf to speak of, but some lovely swimming and paddling conditions at Fermain, Moulin Huet and other east facing spots.
The Weekend
The Weather
High pressure wiill extend from the Azores to the UK, giving us two entirely dry and sunny days, with just the gentlest of NW’ly breezes. What more could you wish for on the summer solstice.
Surf and the Water
Two lovely days for swimming and paddling. As for the surf, there is a slim chance that we will get some proper groundswell by the end of the weekend, but it looks as though the Atlantic low pressure system will be too far to the north, so I'm currently only expecting a bit of sloppy chop.
The next forecast update should be with you on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway