Monday
The Weather
The previously expected wet weather will not materialise, because the low-pressure system dived into Biscay instead. If we do see any showers at all then they will probably be before breakfast time. By late morning, if not sooner, the sunshine should be blazing, with a gentle NW’ly breeze bringing superb visibility. All areas should be very pleasant, with max temps of about 20°C. If anywhere is going to be just a fraction warmer, then it’s going to be along the beautiful south and east coasts.
Surf and the Water
Although the wind will be onshore along the west coast, the 2-foot waves should be reasonably clean. If you are paddle-boarding, kayaking or swimming then you probably couldn’t do much better than Petit Bot at low tide (2m at 1:40pm) and Bordeaux at high tide (8.9m at 7:30pm).
Tuesday
The Weather
With just as much sunshine and an even gentler W’ly breeze, most areas should probably be a degree warmer than on Monday.
Surf and the Water
The surf should be 1-2 feet and clean. All beaches should be good for swimming. This time the tidal range will be a little larger, with highs at 8am and 8:20pm. The low water being especially good for the south coast beaches at 2:20pm.
Wednesday
The Weather
There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast this week, and Wednesday is the first day that could go either way. The reason being that a slow-moving weather-front is currently forecast to linger over Southwest England, giving a full day of rain there and a full day of warm sunshine here. Unfortunately, it’s not unusual for computer models to get the position of such fronts slightly wrong. What we can be sure of is a moderate SSW’ly wind. As for the max temperature, I’m currently going for 22°C but it could really be anything between 19 and 23°C, depending on the eventual position of that weather front.
Surf and the Water
Clean 2-3 feet surf on the west coast. The best swimming conditions probably at Pembroke. The tide will be 1.7m low at 3pm; 8.8m high at 8:40am and then 9.1m high at 8:50pm.
The Rest of the Week
The Weather
Thursday through to Sunday are looking straightforwardly hot for nearby England and France, with temperatures likely to climb well into the thirties there (at least on Friday and Saturday anyway). The trouble on this occasion, with forecasting the temperature (and indeed the weather) for the Channel Islands, is that the wind direction is very uncertain through this period. This is because the pressure pattern is very slack, with weak highs and shallow lows forming every day. My current feeling is that we will probably see some days with a dry E’ly airflow, which will allow temperatures to climb into the high twenties, but we shall also see some days with a moist and perhaps foggy NW’ly, which would keep the temperatures much lower.
My apologies for the vagueness of this forecast, but there are newspaper headlines about the expected heatwave in London, and I just wanted to explain that it’s not nearly so predictable for the Channel Islands.
As always, keep an eye on the updates.
Surf and the Water
Clean surf is likely throughout the period, probably never exceeding 4 feet in height, and probably never dropping below 2 feet. The tidal range gradually getting smaller, starting off with highs of around 9m and finishing with highs of around 8m. The highs always in the mid-late mornings and the lows in the mid-late afternoons.
The next forecast update will be with you on Tuesday evening.
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
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