Wednesday
The Weather
Another hot day (the max temps between 25-28°C), with a little sunshine but not nearly as much as on the previous days. The first band of cloud and scattered thundery showers, will push northwards across the Channel in the late morning, but there is still a possibility that these showers will fall over the sea and miss the islands. The more definite downpour appears to be in the late afternoon or evening, when a much larger weather feature comes up from France. We could see some hail come out of this, as well as some very heavy rain and strong wind gusts.
Surf and the Water
Once again, the west coast waves will be very small but very clean, whilst all coasts are good for swimming and paddle-boarding. The tides will be 7.3m high at 11:50am and 3.5m low at 6pm. Needless to say, it would be wise to get out of the water and into your car if the thunder and lightning gets close.
Thursday
The Weather
A very uncertain day. According to most computer model projections, the bands of showery rain will tend to circulate around the low pressure system, whilst we sit relatively undisturbed in the middle. It would only take a small shift in the overall pattern though, for us to get a right old soaking. My current best estimate, is that we will have a mixture of cloud, sea-mist and sunshine for the majority of the day (the max temps about 23-26°C). Then, some showery rain in the evening and overnight, possibly heavy and thundery, although this is much less likely than on Wednesday.
Surf and the Water
The west coast waves will be very small indeed but also very clean. Perfect for very young kids to have their first attempt at surfing, but probably too small for the rest of us. All coasts will be great for swimming and paddle-boarding, but watch out for that sea-mist. The tidal range will be very small indeed, with less than 3m depth-change between high and low. High water will be about 6.8m at 1:40pm.
Friday
The Weather
With all showers sticking to the larger landmasses, we are in for a straightforward dry day, with moderate W’ly breezes bringing a mixture of cloud and sunshine. The cloud tending to be thicker over the west of the island (possibly low enough for some mist and hill-fog). The island’s max temps will certainly be in Town on this occasion; a modest but very comfortable 22-23°C. The overnight temps also more comfortable, with mins of just 15-16°C.
Surf and the Water
Choppy little west coast waves, but lovely smooth water for swimming and padding in the east. The tidal range still tiny, with a low of 3.9m at 9am and a high of 6.8m at 3:10pm.
The Weekend
The Weather
The temperatures will be more modest and comfortable, like on Friday, rather than smouldering as they were in the earlier part of the week. I mentioned in the previous update, that the detail in this part of the forecast was likely to change, and indeed it has... It now looks as though Saturday will probably be the driest day and Sunday the wettest day. The rain will be showery though, so neither day is clear cut at the moment. The wind looks likely to be a gentle NW’ly on Saturday, favouring the south and east coasts with the highest temperatures (23-24°C). It's then likely to veer to an ENE’ly on Sunday, favouring the south and west coasts with top temps of about 21-22°C.
Surf and the Water
The surf looks flat, but the swimming conditions are looking good, particularly on the south coast. The tidal range gradually getting larger, with lows in the late morning and highs in the late afternoons.
Next Week
The Weather
Cooler changeable weather, with a couple of relatively deep low-pressure systems moving across the UK, only briefly punctuated by a transient ridge of high pressure. Winds will alternate between NW’ly and SW’ly as the pressure pattern changes. Sometimes those winds will be rather fresh but, rain or shine, Town will always tend to be warmest, with daily maxima of about 20-23°C.
Surf and the Water
Some relatively large surf for August, but generally rather choppy and sloppy. Look out for those brief moments when the wind falls light or has more of a S’ly component. Swimmers will generally find the nicest conditions towards high water in the most sheltered bays. Spring tides developing through the week, peaking with a high of about 9.8m on Friday evening.
The next forecast update will be with you on Thursday or Friday.
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