Saturday
The Weather
Sunshine (especially in the afternoon), showers (much lighter and more isolated than on Friday) and a stiff N’ly wind. The temperature will only peak at a meagre 17-18°C, and the wind will generally make you want to keep your jumper on. However, if you head to any of the south coast beaches and use the cliffs as a windbreak, then you should still be able to strip down to your swimwear relatively comfortably.
Surf and the Water
Unless you are a kite-surfer or a windsurfer then it’s all going to be about the south coast on this day. There could be some fun little bodyboard waves available in the morning, whilst the tide drops out. However, by the time that most families pitch up at the likes of Petit Bot and Petit Port, then it will probably only be good for sandcastles and swimming.
Sunday
The Weather
The morning will have the same fresh N’ly wind as Saturday, but the risk of a shower should be pretty much zero by this time. The afternoon should feel much more pleasant though, because that wind will gradually fall light and the sky should just be fabulously blue and sunny. We will still have unseasonably cool air over the islands though. This will mean fabulous visibility, but I doubt that Sunday’s temperatures will climb any higher than Saturday’s.
Surf and the Water
Once again, it’s going to be all about the south coast for most people. As for the other coasts, the waves will be very small and very choppy, but I’m sure the odd kite-surfer will be out there having some fun during the morning. The tidal movements will be medium sized, with low water at 11:50am and high water at 5:50pm.
Bank Holiday Monday
The Weather
Apart from the air still being on the cool side of average (19°C max), it looks as though we have been blessed with some lovely bank-holiday weather this time. High pressure will be centred over the area, meaning that we will barely feel a breath of wind, and the only cloud we are likely to see are little fluffy fair-weather cumulus in the morning, followed by high cirrus cloud in the late afternoon and evening. That high cirrus cloud ought to give us a particularly beautiful sunset. However, it will be a sign that more unsettled weather is just around the corner.
Surf and the Water
A flat day for surfers but an incredibly good day for swimming, kayaking and paddle-boarding, with glassy water surrounding the island and incredible visibility too. The tides will be 8m high at 6:20am, 2.4m at 12:40pm and then 8.4m high at 6:30pm.
The Rest of Next Week
The Weather
With a SE’ly breeze over the islands, milder continental air should begin to lift temperatures on Tuesday. This wind will also make the progress of the next weather-front rather slow and erratic, such that it is uncertain whether it will arrive in the morning with a bit of potency, or whether it will weaken in the mouth of the Channel and just dripple in through the afternoon and evening. Either way, with a weather chart that closely resembles local climatology (low-pressure over Northwest Britain and high-pressure over France), it looks as though the first week of September will be dominated by rather average conditions. The winds generally moderate in strength and alternating between S’ly and W’ly directions as the occasional weather-front trades places with a ridge of high pressure. However, there is a slim chance of more exciting news as we head into next weekend, because some early computer model projections suggest that the French high-pressure system could expand into Southern Britain, to give us a last little taste of summer before the kids go back to school. It’s far too early to forecast that weekend with any confidence, so keep an eye on the updates to see whether that story continues to develop.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be very small or flat on Monday, but it should pick up to a clean 1-2 feet on Tuesday and then probably be a little bigger through the rest of the week. The best swimming conditions will generally be in the east, but also in the north and west at times. The spring tides not nearly as large as they were a couple of weeks prior; this time the highs should generally be between 8.5 and 9m.
The next forecast update will be with you on Sunday evening.
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway