Monday
The Weather
Lovely sunny with hardly any wind through the morning and early afternoon. However, the wind and cloud will both increase through the late afternoon and evening, ahead of some generally murky weather overnight. The top temperature will be about 20°C in Town, and 18-19°C in most other areas.
Surf and The Water
Lovely clean 1-2 foot waves on the west coast, until the force 4 W’ly wind messes them up in the late afternoon and evening. Great swimming and paddling conditions in all parts during the early part of the day, but probably best to head to the sheltered east if you are going for a late dip. The tides 8.2m high at 10:10am, then 2.4m low at 4:20pm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
The Weather
With muggy air over the islands, we are looking at a couple of mostly overcast days. The winds consistently moderate W’ly and the temperatures ranging between about 15°C at dawn and 20°C in the afternoons. On both days, there is a chance that the cloud will thicken up to produce some mist and drizzle in the mornings, but on the flip-side there is also a chance that some weak sunshine could break through in the afternoons.
Surf and The Water
The surf will be sloppy, choppy and miniscule. However, the swimming and paddling conditions will still be great on the east-coast. The tidal range will be getting smaller, as we move further away from last week’s full-moon. The highs will be in the late mornings, roughly 7.9m on Tuesday and 7.5m on Wednesday.
Thursday and Friday
The Weather
Dry and mostly sunny to end the working week. Winds very light (mainly N’ly on Thursday and S’ly on Thursday), meaning that all parts of the island will feel very comfortable and warm. It’s a little uncertain how high the temperature will climb, but we should exceed 20°C on both days, possibly going as high as 22°C on Friday.
Surf and The Water
If we are lucky enough to get some little 1-2 foot waves, then they will be very clean and well formed. There are plenty of deep depressions in the north Atlantic this week, but the swell will have to travel a long way to reach us, and its energy will become more diffuse as it refracts around Ireland and Cornwall. High water will be pretty close to 7m on both days, around noon.
The Weekend
The Weather
The most certain thing is that we will receive a dose of rain on Friday night. However, the medium-range forecast models are struggling (as they do) to pin down the movement of tropical storms across the Atlantic, making it very difficult to predict whether a series of deep depressions will be steered towards Southern England or towards Scotland. It is honestly a 50/50 split at the moment, between a gorgeous sunny weekend and something more akin to a winter storm. Hopefully by my next update, a forecast story should have crystalised.
Surf and The Water
All that uncertainty about the weather, is obviously matched by a total lack of certainty in the sea state. However, the tidal movement are far more predictable, with lows in the mid-mornings and highs in the mid-afternoons (around 6.5m on Saturday and 7m on Sunday).
The next forecast update will be with you on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway