Wednesday
Weather
And it’s downhill we roll again. The wind will be a strong force 6 SSW’ly for most of the day, then veering WNW’ly around dusk. The skies will be cloudy from the start, with patchy rain arriving by late morning, then turning heavy and persistent for a time in the afternoon, before breaking up into occasional showers around dusk. At least it won’t be too cold though... the max temp 17-18°C (about the same as Tuesday).
Surf and The Water
Small clean surf for most of the day, which could be pretty fun but obviously the strength of the wind will be quite challenging. The tides just over 8.5m high shortly before dawn, and just under 9m high at dusk.
Thursday
Weather
The wind will be a bit gentler; a force 4-5 WNW’ly, gradually backing SW'ly. The air will be much cooler though (a max temp of about 15°C) and this cooler air will make a great breeding ground for heavy showers of rain and hail. The showers will be pretty frequent, but there will be plenty of dry and bright intervals, so keep a look out for some beautiful rainbows.
Surf and The Water
The west coast surf will be about 5-6 feet; choppy in the morning but becoming increasingly clean in the afternoon. The tides will be getting bigger, with highs of 8.9m at 7:10am and then 9.2m high at 7:30pm.
Friday
Weather
Well if you think the previous days were wet (most probably 10-15mm of rainfall each), then Friday will be the really wet one, with 20-40mm likely. The tricky thing to forecast on this day has been the wind direction, because it depends on the precise position of Storm Alex. Forecast models have been fairly inconsistent with this, so the apps on your phones have probably kept changing from S’ly to W’ly to N’ly etc. However, confidence is now growing that our strongest winds will be SE'ly (strong force 6-7 or perhaps briefly gale force 8). Later in the day, the wind will probably ease off to a force 4-5 NE'ly. The tides will be big, roughly 9.2m high at 7:40am and about 9.4m high at 8pm. That's not really high enough for flooding, but with those winds being onshore for the east coast, I think we can expect some very big splashes, with its of debris coming onto the road during the morning rush-hour.
Surf and The Water
With the storm developing so close to home, the waves will not have had a chance to grow very large, only about 3-5 feet but they will be very clean. Having said that, it will still be really difficult to catch the waves against that howling offshore wind, and it will be very easy to get blown out to sea, so this is definitely not a day for beginners. The tides will be big, roughly 9.2m high at 7:40am and about 9.4m high at 8pm.
The Weekend
Weather
Staying stormy, with less rain than on Friday but similar amounts to Wednesday and Thursday (about 10-15mm each day). The wind is a bit easier to predict this time, with that deep low-pressure system becoming settled over Southern Britain, putting us in a consistent force 6 to 7 WNW’ly. Besides the awful weather, this will mean that the west coast roads will suffer a lot of splashing and debris during the morning and evening high tides (but the east coast should get off very lightly).
Surf and The Water
As the wind persists, the waves will pick up to about 8 feet on the west coast, but it will always be very difficult and messy. Once again, the windsurfers should really get the best of it.
Next Week
Weather
I’m afraid, with such a volatile atmosphere at the moment, there is no sense in trying to pin down the details for next week. Suffice to say that there will be further stormy conditions, only punctuated by the odd day or half day of respite. The temperatures about normal for the time of year, but always feeling chilly when the wind is strong.
Surf and The Water
Some very big surf for sure, and some nice clean conditions during any moments that the wind falls light or backs to a S’ly direction. The tidal range gradually becoming smaller, until high water is only 7.5m around midday on Friday.
The next forecast update should be with you on Thursday and Friday.
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway