Friday
Weather
Since the storm was named Alex, a couple of days ago, the details have become more certain about of how wet and windy it will be. If we look at the rain first, with almost a full night and day of downpours (many of which will be heavy), we will probably see about 30-40mm, which will almost certainly mean some localised flooding. Looking next at the wind, this will really start ramping up in the small hours of the morning, with a strong force 6 to gale force 8 E’ly. Then, around dawn, as the storm centre passes right over us, the wind will swivel all the way around the compass, until it eventually settles into a SE’ly direction. If it finds this direction soon enough (very uncertain) then it will mean that the east coast-road becomes particularly vulnerable to the high spring tide, so we could see lots of splashes and debris coming over the walls there, especially in the Bulwar Avenue area.
Surf and the Water
With the storm forming so close to home, the waves will not have had a chance to grow much larger than 4-6 feet. The astronomical tide prediction is to be about 9,1m high at 7:40am and 9.3m high at 8pm. With such low pressure though, we can expect quite a lot of storm surge, so the actual tide heights might end up being 40-50cm higher than the predictions.
Saturday
Weather
Once again, it will be raining for a large portion of the day, so we can expect a likely top up of about 20mm. Overnight, the wind will probably have relaxed to a force 3 N’ly, but it really won’t be long until it spruces up again, this time to a force 5-7. So, with very large tides again, it could be both the east and the west-coast roads, that suffer from excessive splashes and debris in the morning. Later in the day, the wind might go light and variable for a time, as another low-pressure centre passes overhead. This is very uncertain, but there is some chance of a few pleasantly calm hours.
Surf and the Water
The tidal heights and the threat of storm surge will be very similar to those of Friday, but the timings will be 30-40 minutes later. As for the waves; they should be just as large as on Friday, or maybe a bit larger, so keen surfers should seize the moment, if we are blessed with a few hours of lighter winds.
Sunday
Weather
The wind will continue to blow at a strength of force 6-7, but this time from a due W'ly direction. On this occasion, we should see just the odd shower coming and going, with plenty of sunny intervals (and a few pretty rainbows of course). If you keep an eye on the horizon, you might even manage to get a couple of laundry loads hung and dried. (Max temps 14-15°C, much the same as the previous days).
Surf and the Water
The waves will be very large indeed, but probably much too choppy to surf on the west coast I’m afraid. The tidal movements will only be a tiny bit smaller than on Saturday, so those west coast roads will get another soaking for sure. Those highs being at 8:50am and 9pm.
Next Week
Weather
The rainfall should remain showery in nature, for the vast majority of the week, with most days seeing a good amount of brightness or sunshine. I’m afraid it’s not going to get much warmer though, with a chilly force 4 to 5 WNW’ly breeze through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Then on Thursday, the wind should back to a SW’ly direction, before they strengthening to force 6-7 on Friday.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be large and choppy for most of the week, but then reasonably clean for a portion of Thursday and Friday. The tidal range gradually becoming smaller, until high water is only 7.5m around midday on Friday.
The next forecast update will be on Sunday evening.
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway