Monday
Weather
Cloudy all day, although reasonably bright at times during the morning. Becoming very wet around lunchtime, but the rain easing off to drizzle later in the afternoon. The wind WSW’ly force 3-4 in the morning, then SSW’ly force 4-5 in the afternoon and evening. Daytime max 14°C, overnight min 10°C.
Surf and the Water
Tiny tidal movements and a favourable wind direction should all be great news for the west-coast surf. However, we are probably only looking at a 1-foot swell at best. Sea swimmers should either pounce on the early morning session, when winds are very light, or find a sheltered nook around high tide in the mid-afternoon.
Tuesday
Weather
Overnight, the wind will have veered NNW’ly force 4 to 6, so it’s going to feel pretty chilly from the word go (head to the south coast for a bit of shelter). As for the weather, we should have a good few dry hours in the morning, but we will probably have had our first shower by lunchtime, and then they will keep coming and going through the rest of the day. The daytime temperature will be at least a degree cooler than on Monday, but the overnight temperature will be about the same.
Surf and the Water
Very choppy surf, but reasonably good swimming conditions on the south coast around the late afternoon high tide.
Wednesday
Weather
Another mixed day of sunshine and showers. However, with the wind veering to a force 5 NE’ly, the showers might well line up and then plough through us with such frequency that the sunshine doesn’t get much of a look-in. Hopefully this detail will be a bit more certain by the next update. Either way, it’s not looking too toasty, with 13°C being the most probable max.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be 2-3 feet but I’m afraid the cross-shore wind will ruin it (unless of course you are a windsurfer or a kite-surfer). Low tide will be about 2.4m at 11:40am, then high tide will be about 8.6m at 5:40pm.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
It’s really quite uncertain, but at this stage, these look likely to be the finest days of the working week. The NE’ly wind easing off to force 3-4 on Thursday and then dropping right off to a force 2 on Friday. Both days are likely to be mostly dry, with only isolated showers dotted around the Channel. There’s is therefore a good chance of sunshine, and we might just see temperatures recover to 14°C on Friday. I know that doesn’t sound too special, but with such light winds, it should feel a lot nicer than the previous few days.
Surf and the Water
Very small surf and a choppy cross-shore wind in the west coast bays. Good swimming conditions on the south coast though, especially down at Petit Port and at Jaonnet Bay. Big tidal movement, with lows at lunchtime and highs towards dusk (9.3m on Thursday and 9.8m on Friday).
The Weekend
Weather
A strengthening SE’ly wind should steadily bring milder air over the islands, lifting max temps by about a degree per day. Throughout the weekend a fairly deep low-pressure system will be resident in the Bay of Biscay, and the biggest uncertainty is whether we will see some of the bands of rain that it produces, or whether they will all keep to the west of us. Fingers crossed for the dry scenario. However, there would still be thick cirrus cloud spilling across the Channel, so any sunshine would be very muted at best.
Surf and Tide
The west-coast surf could be pretty excellent over the weekend, probably a clean 2-3 feet on Saturday and maybe double that on Sunday. It’s still very uncertain though. What we can be sure of are the very large tidal movements, with highs of over 10m on both days.
The next forecast update should be with you on either Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway