Wednesday
Weather
Another mixed day of sunshine and showers, but this time with the showers most frequent in the morning and the sunshine most prevalent in the afternoon. The wind will be a force 4 to 5 ENE’ly and that’s going to bring very slightly milder air than on Tuesday, so this time we should hopefully peak at 14°C.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be 2-3 feet and pretty clean. Low tide will be about 2.4m at 11:40am, then high tide will be about 8.6m at 5:40pm.
Thursday
Weather
After a rather wet night, the showers could still be fairly frequent in the morning, but they should quickly become isolated, meaning that we might become dry to stay by lunchtime. Winds and temperatures pretty much the same as on Wednesday.
Surf and the Water
Smaller and slightly messier surf, due to the wind blowing from a due NE’ly direction. This will mean good swimming conditions on the south coast though, particularly at Petit Port around lunchtime. Low tide will be about 1.6m at 12:30pm, then high tide will be about 9.2m at 6.20pm.
Friday
Weather
Ah that’s better, the showers will be so few and far between that we should stay dry all day, and the wind should relax to just a force 3-4 E’ly. I’m not really expecting the temperature to climb any higher, but with long spells of hazy sunshine it should still feel much more pleasant than previous days.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will remain very small (only 1-2 feet at best), but it should be much cleaner than on Thursday, so kids and longboarders might well find some good rides. The high tides will be just before dawn and just after dusk; 9.4m and 9.8m respectively. Low tide will be just 1m at 1:10pm.
The Weekend
Weather
Some confidence has now emerged in the position of the low-pressure system over Biscay. Having moved further west than previous expectations, we are likely to stay totally dry (unless we catch one or two isolated showers, that develop at the east end of the Channel). Our wind will be moderate ESE’ly, bringing air of typical temperature for this time of year, probably peaking at about 14°C, with an even mix of cloudy and sunny skies.
Surf and Tide
The west-coast surf will still be beautifully clean, but I’m afraid we are not expecting so much potency from that Biscay low-pressure system, meaning that the waves will only be 1-2 feet at best. As for the very large tidal movements, no change there, with highs of over 10m on both days.
Next Week
Weather
As low-pressure deepens over the Atlantic, and high-pressure builds over continental Europe, we will find ourselves in the strengthening airflow that lies in the middle. The wind will probably be a fresh SE’ly on Monday and Tuesday, veering to a strong S’ly through Wednesday and possibly a gale-force SW’ly towards the end of the working week. With such a consistent airflow, coming up from very low latitudes, we will see a significant rise in temperatures, with daily maxima of 16-18°C and nightly minima of 12-14°C. However, it certainly won’t be wall-to wall sunshine, with showers or longer spells of rain likely every day from late Tuesday onward.
Surf and Tide
The west-coast surf should be clean throughout the week, and it will steadily increase in size, until it is perhaps big enough to go surf on the north coast as well. Whilst those waves are on the increase, the tidal movements will be on the decrease, starting at over 10m on Monday morning (rush-hour conditions could be difficult on the east coast then), steadily shrinking to 7.5m around noon on Friday.
The next forecast update should be with you on either Thursday or Friday.
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