Monday
Weather
Much like on Sunday, we will have a 50/50 mix of brightness and cloudy spells. This time however, the cloudy spells are expected to produce occasional showers rather than mist. These showers will be pretty brief but I'm afraid they will be heavy enough to ruin your chances of drying the laundry. The wind will be a moderate SE’ly at first, gradually veering S’ly by evening, then dropping off to a light SW’ly overnight, constantly maintaining this supply of very mild air.
Surf and the Water
The perfect wind direction for really clean west-coast waves. However, it’s going to be smaller than it was at the weekend, with nothing more than a few knee-waist high waves for people with very large boards or kayaks. The swimming conditions will be nice on the north and west coast though, especially as the air is so mild. High water will be the best option (roughly 7m at noon).
Tuesday
Weather
A gentle SW’ly airflow, veering W’ly in the afternoon, will bring a gradual improvement through the day. Showery in the morning then lovely and sunny in the afternoon. All areas will feel very pleasant, even though the temperature will be about a degree lower than the previous few days (14°C for the max, 11°C for the min).
Surf and the Water
Probably just dribbly 1-foot surf, but fear not because good waves are just around the corner. This time, with the reduction in wind, swimmers will find good conditions all around the island but I think the cream of the crop will probably be at lunchtime in northeast of the island, between Bordeaux and Beaucette (high water roughly 7.2m at 1:50pm).
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
The most consistent thing will be the mild temperatures, with daily maxima of about 15°C and nightly minima of about 12°C. However, there will certainly be a few ups and downs with the weather. Wednesday and Friday both dry but cloudy, with moderate S’ly winds. But sandwiched between those two rather bland days, will be a very wet and windy Wednesday night and a very sunny and settled Thursday.
Surf and the Water
Some deep low-pressure systems in the mid-Atlantic will send us a lovely swell for these three days... 3-4 feet and clean on both Wednesday and Friday, with a chunky 6 feet Thursday sandwiched between. The tides will be getting larger though, so finding the best options in the limited daylight will take a decent amount of skill (or luck). The times and heights of high water are as follows; 7.9m at 3pm Wednesday, 8.5m at 4pm Thursday, 9.1m at 4:50pm Friday.
The Weekend
Weather
I’m afraid it’s very uncertain at the moment, because it’s quite a long way off, so don’t be too surprised if there are fairly big changes in the next update. Anyway, here are the current expectations... Saturday looks as though a gentle S’ly wind will bring rain, drizzle and mist for the vast majority of the day, then Sunday morning will probably have a few hours of heavier rain before becoming dry and sunny in the afternoon.
Surf and Tide
A fresh pulse of clean swell should boost the surf to 5-6 feet (maybe a bit bigger on Saturday). Those tides will be very large, but it currently looks as though the wind should be quite kind to those vulnerable stretches of coast road. On both days, the highs will be shortly before dawn and just after dusk, getting up to 9.6m on Saturday and 9.9m on Sunday.
The next forecast update should be with you on Tuesday or Wednesday...
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Swim Conditions
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Lihou Causeway