Monday
Weather
Skies will be rather cloudy, but it will be mostly dry, with only a few isolated showers scattered around the Channel. Winds will be pretty perky, but nothing like the hooley that was blowing on Sunday afternoon and evening, just a moderate to fresh W’ly, gradually backing SW’ly (max temp 13-14°C).
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be very big and messy, but there might just be enough swell for a decent north-coast session in the afternoon. Swimmers should head to the east coast for some lovely smooth water and a nice bit of shelter. The tides will be about 9.9m high at 7am and then about 0.7m low at 1:20pm. Watch out for big splashes and debris on the west coast roads around high water (although it won’t be quite as troublesome as Sunday evening was).
Tuesday
Weather
Cloudy skies in the morning and perhaps a bit of mist, but hazy sunshine should prevail by lunchtime. This time the wind will be about the same strength as on Monday but it will come from a SSW’ly direction, brining slightly warmer air to the islands (max temp 14-15°C)
Surf and the Water
Beautifully clean 4-5 feet surf on the west coast, and great swimming conditions on the north coast. High water will be about 9.8m at 7:40am and low water 0.8m at 2:10pm.
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
The mild S’ly airflow will strengthen on Wednesday morning, taking the temperature to an early max of 15-16°C, but the weather will go steadily downhill, with showers arriving by lunchtime, followed by a cloudy afternoon and then a drizzly evening.
Thursday will then have much cooler air, streaming in on a fresh to strong NW’ly. Thursday’s weather should be dry and mostly sunny though, with excellent visibility, lovely for a walk if you head to the sheltered south or east coasts and wrap up reasonably well.
I’m afraid Friday’s weather is too uncertain to predict at the moment, because we are equally likely to be under the settled influence of a French high-pressure system or the unsettled influence of a British low. Either way, it’s going to be just as chilly as Thursday, with the temperature only climbing to 11 or 12°C.
Surf and the Water
The tidal range will steadily get smaller, with the highs moving into the mid-mornings and the lows moving into the late-afternoons. As for the surf, Wednesday looks just as lovely as Tuesday (perhaps slightly better actually). Thursday looks big and messy but there could be some novelty fun on the south coast. Friday’s surf is as uncertain as the weather, but there’s a high chance that the wind will be light, so it will most likely be quite clean.
The Weekend
Weather
It looks as though the French high-pressure system will probably take charge of the Channel and Southern Britain too. Meaning that we will have dry weather, with light winds from a variety of directions. Early indications suggest that it will be rather cloudy though, meaning that temperatures remain around average or just a tad cooler. Daily maxima of 10-12°C and nightly minima of 6-8°C (ground-frost currently seems unlikely).
Surf and Tide
The surf potential is looking good, with very light winds and enough mid-Atlantic activity to guarantee at least 4-5 foot of swell. The tides will be high in the late mornings (just a little over 7m).
The next forecast update should be with you on Tuesday evening...
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway