Monday and Tuesday
Weather
Monday is going to be very mild, with the temperature hovering between 11 and 13°C throughout the day and the night. I’m afraid it’s nothing to get excited about though, because it’s also going to be very soggy, with almost every kind of wetness you can think of… fog, mist, drizzle, moderate rain and occasional heavy downpours. What I certainly don’t expect to see, is any sunshine. If you still fancy going out for a walk, then I’d probably recommend the stretch from Town to Fermain and on to Jerbourg, because that’s the area which will be the most sheltered from the fresh to strong WSW’ly wind. Moving on to Tuesday, there will be very little change in the weather or the temperature. However, the wind will ease back to just a moderate SSW’ly, making it a bit more comfortable for outings along the west and north coasts too.
Surf and the Water
A steady run of medium-large waves of medium-good quality. Generally around 6 feet on the west coast and surfable throughout daylight hours, thanks to a relatively small tidal range, with highs of 7.6m at 11am on Monday, then 7.2m at midday on Tuesday.
Wednesday and Christmas Eve
Weather
It’s not quite going to turn Dickensian, and I doubt that you’ll be using your tea-trays for anything other than serving tea and biscuits. However, we are going to see a very aptly-timed shift to a colder regime. Looking at the bigger picture, we will see the development of a large, dry high-pressure system over the Atlantic, elbowing the wet and windy low-pressure system into Brittany on Wednesday and then to the snowy mountains of Europe on Christmas Eve. On Wednesday, we can expect lots of showery rain, on a fresh S’ly wind. That wind will then back E’ly overnight and back further to a N’ly direction on Christmas Eve. The temperatures will take a bit of a daily tumble, peaking at 11-12°C on Wednesday, and then only just scraping 9°C on Christmas Eve. However, I don’t think anybody will be complaining, because it’s going to be a lovely sunny 9°C, with only the most isolated of showers in the area. Head down to the south coast cliff paths, for the best of it.
Surf and the Water
Probably the last of the lovely west-coast waves on Wednesday (4-5 feet and clean), then just tiddly wind-chop on Christmas Eve. The tidal range will be very small, with highs of roughly 7m around 1pm on Wednesday, 2pm on Christmas Eve.
Christmas Day and Boxing Day
Weather
More cool sunshine on Christmas Day, brought to us by a gentlee NW’ly breeze. The max temperature will only be 8°C, but it should feel very comfortable for walks and swims etc on the south and east coasts. However, I’m sure that many people will be saving their cold-water craziness for Cobo on Boxing day. And that organised swim is set to be a suitably bracing one, with the wind switching to a fresh SW’ly and the sky turning cloudy (so don’t forget your flasks and hot-water bottles).
Surf and the Water
It doesn’t look like there will be any surf to speak of on this Christmas day I’m afraid. However, Boxing Day will probably be rideable, with a sloppy 2-3 feet possible on the west coast if we are lucky.
Beyond Boxing Day
Weather
It looks as though we will have some rather persistent rain on Sunday, when a cold-front sweeps southwards. After that, we will probably have sunshine and isolated showers through at least the next 3-4 days. The wind will probably be a strong WSW’ly on Sunday, veering to a moderate NW’ly on Monday, and remaining so for most of the time until the New Year. Always feeling rather chilly but with temperatures pretty much average for this time of year (daily maxima of 8-10°C, nightly minima of 6-8°C).
Surf and the Water
With low-pressure over Scandinavia and high-pressure stretched all the way from Portugal to Greenland, we can certainly expect some wind (great for Kites and Sailboards) but that wind will all be in the wrong place to generate significant swell for surfers. The persistence of the NW’ly wind should give us some fairly large but very short-period choppy waves on the north and west coasts. The chances that these waves will have enough power to wrap into the sheltered south-coast bays are very slim, so it’s probably going to be lovely for our sea-swimmers down there, but rather frustrating for surfers.
The next forecast update will be on Wednesday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway