Wednesday
Weather
A small scale low-pressure system is going to develop near Ireland in the morning and then spin its way through the Channel in the afternoon. This will have the effect of backing the so-far persistent cool NW’ly wind to a slightly milder SW’ly and it will change the isolated showers of the morning to persistent rain in the afternoon and evening. Max temps are going to be about 9°C and those already-large puddles will be topped up by roughly 10mm more rainfall.
Surf and the Water
After the massive swell at the start of the week, we are in for some west-coast waves of a much more manageable size. Furthermore, the wind is changing to a much more favourable direction in the afternoon, meaning that we should see some really clean 4-foot waves before the end of the day. The timing of the tides could be a bit better, but it is what it is… High water will be roughly 8.8m before dawn and after dusk and low water will be about 2.2m at 12:50pm.
NY’s Eve and NY’s Day
Weather
During Wednesday night, the low-pressure system will have cleared eastwards and the airflow will have veered to a cold N’ly, meaning that you will definitely need your hats and gloves. However, there will probably be too much wind and cloud to allow a ground-frost to form and it is very unlikely that you will have to scrape your car wind-screens. The rest of the day should be mostly (if not entire) dry with sunny spells. Carrying on overnight and through Friday, the showers will become a little more widespread, so the chances of them hitting the islands will increase greatly. Furthermore, they might turn a little sleety at times, because Friday will probably be the coldest day of the week so far, with the temperature only starting at 1-2°C and picking up to a very miserly max of just 5-6°C. The south-coast cliff-paths will probably be the most pleasant place to go walking, because you won’t feel quite so much bite from the NE’ly breeze down there.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be semi-clean, because the cross-shore wind won’t be particularly strong. Thursday’s waves should be 3 feet and Fridays only 1-2 feet. New Year’s swimmers will find the loveliest conditions on the south coast for sure. If, however, you prefer to swim at one of the west-coast bays, then the most-sheltered areas will be cosily tucked into the northern corners. The high tides will be roughly 8.9m around dawn, and the lows will be roughly 2m in the early afternoons.
The Weekend
Weather
The temperatures and wind will be very much the same as on Friday (so once again the south coast will feel slightly more comfortable than elsewhere). The trend to more frequent showers will probably continue though, to the extent that the sunshine really struggles to find an opportunity to break through. It currently looks as though Sunday afternoon stands the best chance of brightness, but that detail is quite uncertain at this stage.
Surf and the Water
There’s a slim chance of a rideable 1-foot wave on Saturday, but it’s actually looking more likely to be flat on both days. The south coast will still be lovely for a very chilly dip though. The water temp is about 4 degrees higher than the air temp though, so the run across the sand will probably be the most painful part of the experience. The tidal range will start to shrink, but only by about 20-30cm each day. The highs will be in the early mornings and the lows in the mid-afternoons.
Next Week
Weather
Brrrr, staying cold every day, with NE’ly winds bringing air from Eastern Europe, so I don’t expect temperatures to go anywhere near double figures. 5-6°C is about all we can expect from the warmest times of day, and 1-3°C from the coldest times of night. Ground-frost is likely whenever winds are light overnight or in the early morning. Furthermore, with rain or sleet showers often blowing over from the Dover Strait, there’s bound to also be some ice on your car windows, so keep your gloves and scrapers handy.
Surf and the Water
Sorry surfers, but it’s looking likely to be more or less flat all week. I guess that’s good news for swimmers though. The south coast and some parts of the west will be best for finding shelter from the wind, especially around the times of high water, which will be during the mornings Monday to Wednesday, then at lunchtime on Thursday and Friday.
The next forecast update will be on New Year's Day..
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