Tuesday
Weather
Despite the unsettled nature of this week’s weather, riding a big dipper between dry brightness and murky wetness, there seems to be a decent amount of rhythm and predictability. Tuesday, much like the previous day, will have lots of rain and very little brightness in the morning, and then lots of brightness and very little rain in the afternoon; all set to a steady background of moderate to fresh SSW’ly winds and relatively mild temperatures (9-11°C). The south coast will obviously be exposed to this wind, and the north coast will catch a lot of it too, because it is so low-lying. So if you want to find a really sheltered spot for your daily exercise, then your best bets will be inland, along the east coast or tucked into the southern corners of the west-coast bays.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will still be quite chunky for beginners and intermediates (4-6 feet), but the experienced surfers who have been out every day lately, will probably find it a bit less punishing than it has been. There’s a slim chance of a wave up north as well, but if that is the case then it’s certainly going to be small, only 1-2 feet at the most. High water will be 8.7m at 9:20am and low water will be 1.8m at 3:40pm.
Wednesday
Weather
The SSW’ly wind will be stronger (force 6 for the most part) and the skies will generally be cloudier. However, the rainfall distribution will be much the same as the previous days, with the bulk of it falling through the morning, and only a risk of the odd brief shower in the afternoon. The temperature probably peaking at 11°C again.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be the same kind of size as on Wednesday, but it will be a shade cleaner. Furthermore, the offshore wind will be strong enough to give the windsurfers and kitesurfers a decent share of the action too. High water will be 8.2m at 9:50am and low water will be 2.3m at 4:10pm.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Thursday is probably the odd day out this week, because the wind will veer to a fresh W’ly, allowing marginally cooler air to blow through the islands (8-10°C). This is going to lead to feel very different on the west coast, but most other areas will feel very similar to the other days. Once again, the rain will be front-loaded into the morning, with the afternoon enjoying a healthy dose of sunshine. The UV index is reaching 2 now that we are into the second half of February, which is still very weak, but it is a shade more powerful than it has been since early November, so you should actually manage to dry some laundry with it. Moving on to Friday, the wind will return to a strong S’ly, which will mean that we get very similar weather to that of Wednesday; cloudy all day, possibly wet at times in the morning, but probably dry throughout the afternoon.
Surf and the Water
Choppy waves on Thursday, the only choppy day of the week, so maybe a good opportunity to rest those weary limbs. Clean waves will return for Friday though, around 3-4 feet on the west coast, and probably flat on the north. Medium-small tidal range, with highs in the late mornings.
The Weekend
Weather
The story hasn’t changed since my last forecast; it’s still looking like an absolute peach of a weekend, (for February anyway); dry and sunny throughout both days, with a moderate to fresh S’ly breeze bringing very mild up from way down south, the temperature likely to go all the way to 13°C.
Surf and the Water
Fantastic clean surf and such a tiny tidal range that the west coast waves should be equally excellent at any time of day. The weather will be great for sea-swimmers too; the sea-temperature took a bit of a hit through the cold-snap (dipping below 8°C) but there is a good chance of recovering by a degree or so by this time.
The next forecast update will be with you on Thursday evening.
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway