Saturday
Weather
Well we hit the magic 20°C on Friday, which is a few days earlier than expected, so I think we can crack on now with some proper May weather, rather than all that cold, wet and windy stuff that has disgraced the majority of the month. Starting with this partly sunny Saturday, the Bank Holiday weekend is set to be a beauty. Saturday’s temperature will be a couple of degrees lower than Friday’s, due to the sunshine only arriving in the afternoon and also due to the force 3-4 ENE’ly breeze,. However, I t’s still going to feel lovely in central parts, along the south coast and at the sheltered ends of the west-coast bays.
Surf and the Water
Some cracking 2-3 foot west-coast waves in the morning, when the wind is more or less E’ly. A bit more choppy in the evening though, when it’s more or less blowing from a NE’ly bearing. If you are going swimming, then the south coast beaches will really be the cream of the crop, especially Petit Port and Jaonnet Bay at low tide (mid-afternoon). The tidal range will still be pretty huge, with highs of over 9m at 9:30am and 9:40pm.
Sunday
Weather
With the ENE’ly blowing moderate force 4 all day, we won’t feel the benefit off any second-hand French heat. However, with an almost cloudless sky, the sunshine will be a bit brighter than on Saturday, so we should still manage a respectable max of 16-17°C, and there will be plenty of sheltered nooks that feel really lovely (UV8 so sun-cream and hats will be pretty essential).
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be slightly bigger than on Saturday, but it will always be slightly blighted by the cross-shore wind. If you are heading to a south coast beach for an afternoon of sheltered sun-bathing and swimming, then you might even be treated to some fun 1-2 foot body-surfing waves. The tidal range will be starting to shrink a bit, with a high of about 8.6m at 10:10am and a low of about 1.8m at 4:30pm.
Bank Holiday Monday
Weather
The wind and weather will be pretty much a carbon copy of Sunday, but the temperature should climb a degree or two higher, as the broader region generally heats up. Once again, sun-cream and hats will be very important, if you don’t want to feel sore in the evening.
Surf and the Water
The 3 foot surf won’t be perfectly clean, but at least it won’t be flat. Furthermore, with a smaller tidal range, there should be quite a few more times of day that are surfable, so you might even be able to enjoy a relatively quiet session. As with the previous days, the best swimming conditions will generally be on the south coast or in the northern corners of the west-coast bays. High tides in the mid-mornings, low tides in the mid-late afternoons. The tidal range shrinking further, with a high of about 8m at 11am and a low of about 2.4m at 5:20pm.
The Rest of Next Week
Weather
With a shallow low pressure system developing in Biscay through Tuesday then moving up to the Celtic Sea on Wednesday, we should see gentle ESE’ly breezes on Tuesday followed by SSE’ly breezes on Wednesday. Both days will therefore see very warm air, drawn up from France and Spain. However, with this, we will see sunny mornings turn into cloudier afternoons with a significant chance of thundery showers in the evenings. As always, it will be hit and miss, whether they hit the islands or just pass by in the distance. Best to keep an eye on Channel Islands Weather Radar if you want to avoid getting caught out. The second half of the week is a bit uncertain at this stage, but the most likely scenario is that the low-pressure system will carry on up to Scotland, leaving the Channel Islands to enjoy straight forward dry and sunny conditions, with temperature probably peaking comfortably in the high teens.
Surf and the Water
More clean 2-3 foot surf. And no doubt some slightly warmer water for swimming in. Likewise the SUP and kayaking conditions should be lovely too, thanks to winds that are rarely stronger than force 2-3.
The next forecast update will be on Bank Holiday Monday…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway