Guernsey Weather Fox

Friday

Weather

And so we come to the end of a roastin-toastin run of weatherless weather. However, this is the day of the change, rather than the day after the change, meaning that we will still be in the hot continental air and there is definitely the potential for a good few hours of quality beach-time. The ENE’ly wind will be stronger than on Thursday though (which was already quite a lot brisker than on Wednesday), so you will have to be selective when choosing a beach. If you make an early start, then the west coast will be great, for a few hours. However, if you are leaving it to the afternoon, then cloudier skies and stronger winds will mean that you really need the south-coast cliffs to keep the heat in. ‘What about the thundery showers? I hear you ask. Well, there will be a slim chance in the early afternoon, but probably just a few harmless spits and spots, whilst the bulk of the action occurs 50+ miles to the west. Then, it will really be between dinner-time and shortly after dusk, when a proper boom-flash downpour is looking more likely.

Surf and the Water

The west-coast surf will have to do battle with a pretty strong offshore wind. However, in the most optimistic scenario, it might just pick up to a rideable 1-2 feet (keep em peeled). Big tidal movements, with low water at lunchtime and with highs of roughly 8.5m at 6:40am and roughly 9m at 7pm.

The Weekend

Weather

The shallow low-pressure system that has been over the nearby-Atlantic for the past few days, will pass over the Channel. This means that we will see the full anticlockwise circulation of air, as the system spins from west to east. Saturday, will start with a gentle S’ly breeze, backing E’ly by the evening, then N’ly overnight, before finally settling into a W’ly on Sunday afternoon. This means that we will be progressively drawing in air from cooler origins until, by Sunday afternoon, when we only scrape 20°C if we are lucky, the hot spell will feel like ancient history. So that’s the wind and temperature covered, but what about the weather? Probably not too bad actually… plenty of sunshine, although with an ever-present display of tall silvery-white clouds. The showers always tending to form where it is warmest, so this probably means thundery showers over France during the daytime and lighter showers over the islands during the night-time.

Surf and the Water

The west coast surf forecast is very uncertain. No chance of anything remotely large I’m afraid, it’s just unclear whether it will be flat or about 1-2 feet and rideable. As for the swimming, that will be good in all parts of the island at different times, so best to just strike out to your favourite spot on your favourite tide, and turn to plan-B if it doesn’t turn out to be as smooth as you hoped for. Big tides continuing, with highs around breakfast time and dinner time.

Next Week

The next few weeks of the summer holidays look like a bit of a mixed bag, with further hot spells likely, but probably never as prolonged as the one we’ve just had. The final week of July being a good example of what’s expected… Rather showery on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, as a low-pressure system will be centred over Northern Britain, and we just see the scrappy remains of its associated weather-fronts. Then, from Thursday into the weekend, a French high-pressure system should extend over Southern Britain, to give us a few days of dryness and sunshine. Daily max temps in the very high teens at the start of the week, picking up to the low twenties at the end of the week.

Surf and the Water

The west coast surf will be sloppy but rideable from time-to time, but there is no suggestion of anything special I’m afraid. As for the swimming, there will be lovely moments of smoothness on all coasts, but the east coast coves and beaches will certainly be the most consistent. The tidal range will steadily shrink from spring-tides on Monday (with highs of around 9.5m) to neap tides on Sunday (with highs of around 7m).