Monday
Weather
Cloudy but dry, with the wind still blowing force 4 and coming from the east. The temperature will be a bit of a flat line for most of the time, due to the consistency of that cloud and the wind… 6°C at dawn picking up to 7°C by midday, then dropping back to 6°C by midnight. However, in the second half of the night, the cloud is expected to become much thinner and possibly clear off altogether. If that’s the case then we will see temperatures plummet to just 3-4°C with a fairly widespread ground-frost.
Surf and the Water
There might just be a 1-foot wave for long-boarders to surf, but it will be a struggle against that bitter wind, not to mention the fairly large tidal movements. High water will be roughly 8.6m at 7am, low water will be slightly over 2m at 1:20pm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
The cloud is very difficult to predict at the moment, but most computer models are suggesting that a big grey sheet is going to spread from the North Sea into the Channel, making for a very dull couple of days. However, they should still be dry as a bone, so not at all bad for a winter walk (albeit with hats and gloves). Max temps will be about 8°C on both days and the min temps will be about 6°C on Sunday night and then 3°C on Monday night (with a ground frost). No change in the wind just yet… still a force 4-5 E’ly throughout.
Surf and the Water
Still breezy enough for a bit of kite surfing. As for the surf, Sunday could still be about 1-2 feet and clean, but Monday is looking pretty much flat. The high tides will be about 8.7m before dawn and after dusk and the low tides will be at lunchtime.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
The wind won’t be any lighter, but it will veer to a SE’ly direction, meaning that some very cold French air will blow in our direction. Despite quite a lot of sunshine on Tuesday, we probably won’t see any more than a bitter 6°C on the thermometers. Then after another potentially frosty night, the daylight hours of Wednesday will be pretty much the same story of brightness and bitterness. The real change will come on Wednesday night, when a warm front will waft over the area, veering the wind to a fresh S’ly, taking the mercury right up to 9 or 10°C and probably bringing some showery rain by Thursday morning (that will be the first wetting in about 10 days).
Surf and the Water
Still breezy enough for a bit of kite surfing. As for the surf, Tuesday will be flat as a pancake but then a solid new swell will start to arrive on Wednesday, starting the day at 1-2 feet and likely finishing up at 3-4 feet. The high tides will be about 8.6m at breakfast time and the low tides will be in the early afternoons.
Thursday and Friday (Christmas Eve)
Weather
Winds will continue to blow at a strength of force 5, from a more-or-less S’ly direction. This will maintain the flow of relatively mild air (at least compared to the frigid first half of the week), peaking at around 11°C. However, this wind will also be the bringer of a few brief showers and perhaps some longer spells of rain. Don’t despair though, because there will be long dry spells in between, probably even with some sunshine at times, perfect for more winter walks or to nail some last-minute shopping in a reasonably comfortable fashion.
Surf and the Water
Yet again, the wind will be strong enough for kite-surfing and probably windsurfing too. Surf-wise, we are in for a treat… still clean with wave-heights of 3-4 feet on Thursday then 6-8 feet on Christmas Eve. The high tides will be about 8.6m at breakfast time and the low tides will be in the mid-afternoons.
Christmas Day and Boxing Day
Weather
Just so you know…my most confident word in the rest of this paragraph will be ‘uncertain’… So, will it be a white one this year? Well we all know that it doesn’t tend to happen in the Channel Islands, unless you are talking about the odd hoar-frost or hail shower. If we want to be hopeful, about the Christmas weather then a more realistic wish would be for some settled weather and sunshine, which would allow us to squeeze a really generous portion of fresh-air into our festivities. This year, Christmas Day (much like Christmas Eve) is offering some brightness or sunshine but also the likelihood of a few showers. The temperature will probably peak at 10°C with a moderate S’ly breeze, making the west coast the most comfortable area for those excursions. Moving on to Boxing Day, it really is very uncertain at this range, but it’s looking like a wet one right now, with a shallow low-pressure system over the Channel, bringing patchy rain throughout. The wind will most likely veer E’ly, making the temperature plummet to some extent, but not enough to turn any of that rain into snow.
Surf and the Water
If surfing is one of your Christmas traditions, then it looks like you will really be in luck this year, with clean waves in the 4-6 foot range. The only difficulty will be keeping your session short if on this day you are required to moderate your addiction even more than usual. As for the Boxing Day swim, the weather is currently looking pretty foul (although it is very uncertain), but the wind direction is potentially perfect for smooth water at Cobo. However, I’m sure that everybody will be thoroughly invigorated and excited whatever we get. Tides will be medium-sized, with highs in the late mornings and lows around dusk.
The next forecast update will be on Wednesday…
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