Guernsey Weather Fox

Thursday

Weather

After a misty and drizzly start, the second half of the morning should see a gradual return to dry and bright conditions. Then the afternoon should be just as sunny as it was yesterday. That said, we will hang on to the force 4 WSW’ly wind, so most places will feel a bit fresh. The only areas to exceed 20C are Town and perhaps Fermain. Overnight the wind will back to the SSW and skies will turn cloudy, so it will probably be just as mild as the previous night, with nowhere falling below 15C.

Surf and Tide

Fairly choppy all day; 2 foot waves in the morning, 3-4 foot waves in the evening. The tide will be 8.5m high at 8:20AM and 8.8m at 8:40PM. Low will be 2m at 2:40PM.

Friday

Weather

Up until the late afternoon / early evening, there should be somee briefly bright spells and also some briefly drizzly spells, in a generally cloudy day. The drizzly spells could be rather misty, but the risk of airport fog should be much less than on Thursday morning. To make the most of the brighter moments, it will be hard to escape the force 4-5 SSW’ly winds, but there will be some nooks along the west coast that do the job nicely, such as around Portelet or Richmond; and of course there will be places like Havelet and Fermain in the east. Going into the evening and night, we should see a lot more rain than we have for a long time. However, {rather perfectly} this should have broken up into nothing more than very isolated showers by Saturday morning.

Surf and Tide

3 feet and pretty clean. Not a bad day at all for surfing, although the low tide will take the afternoon option off the table again. The tide will be 8.5m high at 9AM and 8.7m at 9:10PM. Low will be 2.4m at 3:20PM.

The Weekend

Cloud and any lingering showers will gradually clear on Saturday morning, leaving a manly sunny afternoon. However, the WSW’ly winds will still be as strong as force 5, making this probably the least favourable (ay of the weekend {unless you're a windsurfer of course). Sunday won't be entirely cloudless, but it should be dry. Most importantly the wind will drop off to as little as force 2 in the afternoon and evening, so this is really looking like the prime moment for beach trips and barbecues.

Next Week

There is a lot of uncertainty due to the track of ex-hurricane Barry’s remnants. What we can be sure of is that we will see some wetness, but the northwest of the UK will receive the lions’ share of the heavy showers and thunderstorms. We will certainly get some very warm air dragged up from the south and forecast models show the potential for us to hit some of our highest temperatures of the year so far, on Monday and Tuesday. However, this will only be achievable if we don't fall victim to low cloud and sea-fog. It's currently looking good so keep watching this space. Tuesday night will most probably see a spell of heavy rain, as relatively cool air (more normal for July) makes its return to the islands. Thereafter, forecast confidence becomes too low to be of much value, but my current expectation is for it to be both warmer and wetter than average for the time of year.