Thursday and Friday
Weather
These two days are still looking warmer than the first half of the week, thanks to the ENE’ly breeze bringing a continental airflow. Emphasis on the word ‘breeze’ though, because we were previously expecting a bit of strength to that wind (force 4-6), but now it seems that we will be blessed with a relatively gentle force 2 to 4. This will not only allow temperatures to peak at a balmy 19°C on Thursday and 20°C on Friday, but we won’t have to desperately seek shelter in order to feel that warmth. As for the weather, there will still be some really lengthy spells of sunshine on both days, but there will also be some significant cloud development, particularly on Friday late afternoon, which could possible lead to some heavy (maybe thundery) showers in the evening. That said, as is often the case, there is a far greater chance that these will fall on Normandy rather than the islands.
Surf and the Water
The surf is still expected to be flat as a pancake I’m afraid. However, thanks to the reduction in wind, the swimming and paddle-boarding conditions will be much better than previously expected. Best of all on the south and west coasts, while the water is high. Those tides will peak at roughly 8.3m around 9am and around 9:10pm on Thursday. Then on Friday they will be about 8m at roughly 9:30am and 9:40pm.
The Weekend
Weather
Saturday will be bookended by the threat of heavy (maybe thundery) showers. Firstly around dawn, as any overnight showers dwindle away, then secondly during the night-time (the far greater threat) when a low pressure system develops over Brittany and wanders across the Channel to Cornwall. During the bulk of Saturday, in between those possible downpours, we will have many hours of warm hazy sunshine, taking us to a top temp of 19°C, with moderate ENE’ly breezes (only slightly stronger than the previous days). Sunday is a very uncertain one I’m afraid, because that low-pressure system might just make a return trip from Cornwall, or it might continue northeastward. If the latter is true then we would probably have a straight forward dry and sunny day. However, if the former is true then we will be in for cloudy skies and heavy showers though quite a large chunk of the day. In either case, the wind will likely swing round to a W’ly direction and the max temperature is likely to be 2-3°C lower than on Saturday.
Surf and the Water
More absolute flatness with respect to surf. Saturday should be good for swimming and paddle-boarding though. The tides will be high in the mid-mornings (7.6m and 7.2m respectively) and low in the late afternoons.
Next Week
Weather
With the exception of some showers on Monday morning, if that low pressure system is still close enough to home, we are probably looking at more dry and sunny weather right through until next weekend. High pressure will be in charge, firstly it will be centred over Biscay, and the clockwise airflow around it will mean that our wind is a moderate W’ly until Wednesday. After that, the high pressure system will drift across the Channel and into Britain, giving us a day or two of very light and variable breezes, eventually followed by an E’ly. Therefore, our daily max temps in the first half of the week will probably be in the mid-high teens, but then they should increase daily, until we are hitting 20°C again by Friday.
Surf and the Water
With some larger-scale low pressure systems spinning away in the mid-Atlantic, we should see the welcome return of surfable waves... probably getting up to 3 feet by Wednesday, but possibly reaching that size by Tuesday. Either way, the swell should stick around for the second half of the week, and the quality of the waves should steadily improve. As for the tides, we will have very small highs around lunchtime, Monday to Wednesday. Then we will have medium-sized highs in the mid-afternoons, Thursday and Friday.
The next forecast update will be on Saturday morning…
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