Guernsey Weather Fox

Thursday

Weather

We are in for another day of sunshine and showers, with the chance of a rumble of thunder, just like on previous days. The showers will generally whistle through very quickly, as we have a fresh force 5 to strong force 6 wind throughout the daytime and the night time, starting the day as a SW’ly and finishing off as a W’ly. If there are any times when the showers look more concentrated and troublesome, then it is probably mid-morning and then again around dusk and late in the night, so hopefully the late morning/lunchtime hours will allow some decent flying conditions for the air display, and at least (from a spectator point of view) Town will be one of the most sheltered parts of the island.

Surf and the Water

Cleanish 4-5 foot surf in the morning, then becoming messy by the end of the day. Fantastic for windsurfers and kite-surfers. As for the swimming, that would definitely be an east-coast affair. High tide will be around dawn and dinner time. Low tide will be around midday.

Friday

Weather

Previous expectations that Friday would see a return to settled conditions are still good with respect to rainfall. However, in terms of wind, we will now have to wait until Saturday. Yes indeed, after a proper deluge on Thursday night, the morning showers will become fewer and further between, so it’s not guaranteed that we will actually see any as late as lunchtime. Either way, the afternoon should be dry and sunny but I’m afraid the W’ly wind will still be blowing at fresh force 5 to strong force 6 (great for drying the laundry, so long as you double up on the pegs). Max temperature 20-21°C with a UV index of 5. Min temp around 15-16°C overnight.

Surf and the Water

The west-coast surf will stay messy but at 4-5 feet it will certainly be lumpy and chunky enough to have some fun with. Once again, the windsurfing and kite-surfing conditions will be excellent in the west and north, whilst the swimming conditions will be best in the sheltered east. High tide will be around dawn and dinner time (quite a big one in the evening… 9.3m). Low tide will be around 1pm.

The Weekend

Weather

Both days will be on the cloudy side, but much of that cloud will be the high white stuff, rather than the low grey stuff, so this will allow plenty of brightness or hazy sunshine to filter through. Saturday will keep the W’ly airflow but it will become so much lighter than recent days (still moderate force 4 in the morning but only light force 2-3 later) and then Sunday will have moderate force 4 SE’ly, which should bring slightly warmer air to the islands from France. Max temps 21-22°C on Saturday and 23-24°C on Sunday.

Surf and the Water

The first swell from Hurricane Danielle should arrive on Saturday and continue through Sunday. In the usual way with swells that have travelled such a long distance, Saturday’s waves will be very powerful for their size (3-5ft), causing long lulls punctuated by big surges on the beaches, and creating great conditions for experts on the various reefs. By Sunday, the swell should be more regular and predictable, but still epic, with pristine 2-3ft waves for all. Very large tides, as we move into the full moon of the Autumnal Equinox… lows in the early afternoons and highs of 9.8m at 7:40pm on Saturday, then 10m at 8:20pm on Sunday.

Next Week

This has been a very uncertain story for forecasters… all because ex-hurricane Danielle could possibly travel northeastward, leaving the Channel in a hot and dry continental airflow, or it could travel southeastward, to invigorate the low pressure systems over Biscay and Europe. At the moment, it looks as though the latter is more likely and this will probably mean that we still get a rather warm continental airflow for most of the week. However, it will be on the cloudy side and I certainly can’t guarantee dryness, because there will be lots of thunderstorms brewing up over France and then wandering across the Channel into Britain.

Surf and the Water

With hurricane Danielle’s departure from the Atlantic, quickly being followed by hurricane Earl’s arrival, the surf will stay pretty solid. Not always large… sometimes as big as 4-5 feet, sometimes as small as 1-2 feet, but always strong and generally very clean. Those big spring tides will gradually taper away… the biggest high being 10m at 9pm on Monday and the smallest high being 8.1m around 11am on Friday.