Guernsey Weather Fox

Saturday

Weather

Although it’s been pretty cold this week, there has been very little wind so it’s generally felt quite comfortable, so long as you kept your hands in your pockets and your jacket zipped right up to your chin. Not so comfortable this weekend though, especially on Saturday, because the ENE’ly wind will blow fresh force 5 and the temperature will only peak at a dismal 7°C. Just like the previous day, there will be the odd slither of sunshine slipping through the cracks in the cloud-sheet, but most of the time skies will be silvery grey, with showers coming and going.

Surf and the Water

The surf will be about 2 feet and reasonably clean in places. However there will be a slight cross-shore aspect to the wind which will spoil the waves at times, and many people might just think it’s too cold to bother with such imperfection. Winds aren’t looking as strong as previously expected but they might still be brisk enough for kite-surfers to have fun at L’Ancresse. Low tide will be around 9am and high tide will be around 3pm (7.7m).

Sunday

The same miserly max of 7°C for your Sunday, but without the showers this time and without quite as much wind as on Saturday (this time a moderate force 4 E’ly). So, basically it’s another day to accessorise with whatever woolly things you can lay your hands on, but you ought to be able to salvage a nice enough walk along the south or west coast, before returning to the grind of the working week.

Surf and the Water

The 2 foot surf will keep pumping in to the west coast breaks, and it should be a bit cleaner than on Saturday. Despite the very cold air, it might be an idea to grab it while you can. Low tide will be around 10am and high tide will be around 4pm (8.1m).

Monday and Tuesday

Weather

Monday should be quite pleasant, despite the temperature not being much different to that of the weekend, climbing slightly higher by day (8°C) and falling slightly lower by night (3-4°C). These differences will be due to lighter winds (force 3 ESE’ly) and some larger and longer breaks in the cloud, giving some sunny spells by day and some starry skies by night. Tuesday is where the uncertainty really begins because some forecast models are predicting the wind to strengthen, whilst others are predicting the wind to remain light. Either way the weather and temperatures will be pretty much the same as on Monday, the wind detail is only important because it will determine how comfortable/uncomfortable it feels.

Surf and the Water

If it’s not flat then the surf will certainly be very small and weak. However, if it proves to be slightly stronger than expected then it will be super-clean, so keep an eye on it and you might just be treated to decent longboard session. Hardcore winter swimmers will want to stick to the west coast, and preferably go in close to high tide to get whatever shelter the seawalls can offer. Low tide will be in the late mornings and high tide will be shortly after dusk (8.4m and 8.5m respectively).

The Rest of Next Week

Weather

The weather models that we look to for medium-range forecasting are all predicting colder, or perhaps much colder, than average conditions for the UK and NW Europe in general. The local detail will depend on the development of a few small scale low-pressure systems. The movement of these systems will determine whether we draw in air from the relatively warm sea or the cold continent, and they will also determine whether or not we receive sparse showers or more prolonged spells of rain or even snow. At the moment we have to go with the most likely scenario, which I’m sure you will know from experience means no snow for Guernsey. However, many people will also know from experience that it does happen from time to time, so it would be unwise to rule it out altogether. Whatever the precipitation detail, it is certainly going to be cold enough for frosts, with the air temperature only peaking in the mid to high single figures by day and then dropping to the low or very low single figures by night.

Surf and the Water

The uncertainty in the weather regime is also leading to some uncertainty in the surf forecast. However, the chances of it being anything better than flat seem slim at the moment, because the Atlantic low-pressure systems are generally likely to be too far to the north or to the south to allow much swell to penetrate up the Channel. Tides will be fairly large, with highs ranging between 8.6m and 8.9m, shortly before dawn and shortly after dusk.