Guernsey Weather Fox

Saturday

Weather

A lovely sunny and calm day… the breeze just a light force 2 N’ly, due to high pressure being almost directly overhead. Although this day will be much brighter than previously expected, it won’t be any warmer. The inherently cold air only just managing to get tickled up to 9 or 10°C by the weak sunshine. The in the first half of the night, the temperature will fall to about 4 or 5°C (with a ground frost likely in places), before cloudier skies and an increasing SSW’ly breeze induce a recovery to 8 or 9°C.

Surf and the Water

Glassy 2 foot surf on the west coast and silky smooth swimming conditions away from those waves. Low water will be at 11am and high water will be at 5pm (8.8m).

Sunday

Weather

As the SSW’ly wind gradually increases (light force 3 at dawn to fresh force 5 by dusk) the cloud will become progressively thick and low, eventually leading to persistent drizzle and perhaps a foggy evening on the high ground of the Island. Temperatures will return to double figures… 9-10°C for most of the day, picking up to 11-12°C for the evening and the night time. For a pleasant Autumn walk (although not sunny any more) the best time to go would be in the morning or early afternoon, and sheltered places will be found pretty much anywhere except the south coast.

Surf and the Water

Clean 2 foot surf on the west coast. As for the swimming conditions, they will be best around high tide, just about anywhere except the south coast. Low water will be at 11:45am and high water will be at 5:45pm (9.1m).

Monday and Tuesday

Strong force 6 NW’ly winds on Monday, veering to moderate force 4 N’ly winds by Tuesday morning and then reducing light force 3 on Tuesday afternoon. As well as this improving wind story, we will also see a steady reduction in cloud and showers… Monday generally being grey, with brief but heavy showers coming and going, then Tuesday increasingly sunny with only the small chance of light shower from time to time. Temperatures on a downward slide though… Monday’s max 11-12°C, Tuesday’s max just 8-9°C and Tuesday night feeling very chilly, with a minimum of just 4-5°C.

Surf and the Water

The surf will be 4-5 feet and very choppy on Monday, then about 3 feet and quite a bit cleaner on Tuesday. As for the swimming conditions, both days will be best on the south coast (although Tuesday afternoon is actually looking good on all coasts. Tides will be high just before dawn (roughly 9.3m) and low at lunchtime.

The Rest of Next Week

Weather

These three days are subject to quite a lot of change in the forecast, because the Channel Islands is expected to sit in a bit of a nether region between weather systems. Small nudges from nearby stormy low pressure systems or from calm and settled highs, will cause the forecast to flip on its head, switching from heaven to hell at the drop of a hat. My current best estimate is that winds will be light to moderate throughout this period. Some showers or longer spells of rain are likely but the timing is anybody’s guess. Temperatures will all depend on the direction/strength of the wind as well as how much cloud is in the sky, so the most likely maxima and minima would be the climatological averages… roughly 11°C and 7°C respectively.

Surf and the Water

2-3 foot surf, sometimes choppy, sometimes clean. Chance of some decent conditions for kite-surfers and windsurfers, most likely on Thursday. High tides will be around breakfast time (9.2m reducing incrementally to 8.5m). Low tides will be in the early to mid-afternoons.