Saturday
Weather
Much like the previous days, skies will be mostly cloudy… every now and then a crack will reveal some momentary brightness or a slither of sunshine, but just as often the cloud will thicken sufficiently to squeeze out a brief drizzly shower. Winds will come from a due W’ly direction on this occasion, rather than the NW’ly of Friday, but the strength will be similar… fresh force 5 for the most part. Temperatures will be a bit of a flatline around 11°C, only nudging up to 12°C in Town and maybe dipping to 10°C in the night-time.
Surf and the Water
Very choppy 4-5 foot surf on the west coast but great windsurfing conditions there. Swimming conditions will be best on the east coast, either at Fermain Bay or Havelet. Low water will be at 9:40am. High water will be at 3:40pm (roughly 7.9m).
Sunday (Christmas Eve)
Weather
A grey and overcast day, with some patchy drizzle possible around breakfast time and again after dusk. Most likely dry for the majority of daylight hours though. The wind now blowing strong force 6 and coming from a WSW’ly direction. Town will be pretty much the most sheltered part of the Island so last-minute shoppers should have a reasonably comfortable experience. Max temp 12-13°C, min temp 11°C,
Surf and the Water
Rather choppy 5-6 foot surf on the west coast, and even better conditions for windsurfers. Swimming conditions will be best at Havelet and Fermain. Low water will be at 10:40am. High water will be at 3:40pm (roughly 8.1m).
Monday and Tuesday (Christmas Day and Boxing Day)
Weather
There might just be the odd drizzly shower on Christmas Day (similar to previous days), but the proper rainfall will all be reserved for overnight and Boxing Day. Winds will be strongest on Christmas day SW’ly strong force 6, then they will fall fairly light overnight and through Boxing Day morning (just light force 3), then a moderate force 4 S’ly will become established on Boxing day afternoon, gradually strengthening to strong force 6 through the-night time. That rainfall (mainly through the second half of Boxing Day) will add up to about 10mm, so it will probably produce the biggest puddles that we have seen for about a week. Temperatures will remain high though… generally 11-12°C, only momentarily dipping to 10°C when the rain is heaviest.
Surf and the Water
Semi-clean 6 foot surf on Christmas Day, becoming really clean on Boxing Day. Tides will be low in the mid to late mornings, then they will be low in the late afternoons. Compared to previous days, Cobo should be much more calm and smooth for the Boxing Day swim.
The Rest of Next Week
Weather
We will lock into some very unsettled conditions. Although the week leading up to Christmas has been quite windy and not entirely dry, it has been decidedly settled compared to the succession of winter storms that marched across the area in early December. I’m afraid to say, however, that we are now set to return to gale force winds (varying between S’ly and W’ly) and heavy rain… prolonged rain on Wednesday (so possibly leading to some localised flooding) and then frequent squally showers on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will probably take a slight dive, tending to peak around 10°C rather than 12°C, then fall to daily minima of around 7°C (generally during the heavy showers, day or night).
Surf and the Water
Mostly (but not on Thursday) clean west-coast surf… generally rather huge, possibly big enough to score some decent north-coast sessions too. Winds will be hard to manage at times though, but this will be good news for expert windsurfers. Tides will be generally be about 8.8 or 8.9m high around breakfast time and about 8.5 or 8.6m high around dinner time (each day). Low tides will be around lunchtime.
The next forecast update will be on Boxing Day…
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Swim Conditions
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Lihou Causeway