Friday
Weather
The wind won’t be quite as strong as on Thursday and the direction will be slightly different too (this time it’s going to be a fresh force 5 WSW’ly in the morning, veering to a straight W’ly in the afternoon. There will be a few showers around but the vast majority of them will come before breakfast, leaving the rest of the day largely dry. Considering all this; the optimum time to get out and about will be through the late morning and the afternoon; and the optimum place will be along the east coast (including Town, if you want to go shopping). Max temp 12°C, min temp 9°C.
Surf and the Water
High water will be 8.8m around 7:45am, low water will be around 2:15pm. Conditions will be pretty good for windsurfing on the north and west coasts. The waves will generally be 6-10 feet and increasingly choppy for surfers along the west coast. Swimming conditions will definitely be best in the most sheltered eastern bays.
Saturday
Weather
Daylight hours will be dry but quite bright for much of the time, as a little hazy sunshine manages to filter through the thinnest clouds. The wind will come from the south on this occasion… fresh force 5 around dawn, increasing to strong force 6-7 by dusk. During the evening, some persistent and rather heavy rain will set in, then after midnight it will break into scattered blustery showers, with a risk of hail and with gusts of up to 50mph. Once again… max temp 12°C, min temp 9°C.
Surf and the Water
High water will be 8.6m around 8:20am, low water will be around 2:50pm. Conditions will be pretty good for windsurfing again, mainly on the west coast, and this time the waves will be super-clean for surfers down there (generally 3-5 feet). Smooth swimming conditions will be a bit harder to find. Whilst the east, north and west coasts will all have something to offer, it will only be in a handful of cosy little corners. High tide will be the easiest time to do that.
Sunday (NY’s Eve)
Weather
The day will continue just as Saturday night had left it… with strong force 7 WSW’ly winds, frequent heavy showers, with gusts of up to 50mph and possibly with hail. Temperatures a little lower on this day, and certainly feeling quite a bit chillier… max temp 10°C, min temp 8°C.
Surf and the Water
High water will be 8.5m around 9am, low water will be around 3:30pm. Conditions will be very rough and choppy for all activities along the west coast. The waves will generally be 12 feet or bigger there. Fermain is pretty much the only bay that I can think of which would be smooth and relatively safe for a swim, preferably around high tide.
The First Week of 2024
Weather
Through this week, a shift in the jet stream will send low pressure systems directly over the Channel, rather way up north, over Northern Ireland and Scotland. This means that most days will most likely be characterised by very wet mornings, with strong S’ly winds, followed by drier brighter afternoons, with moderate or fresh W’ly or NW’ly winds. Daytime temperatures will likely be similar to the previous week, generally peaking 10 and 13°C. However, nightly temperatures might be a bit lower, possibly getting down to 6 or 7°C if winds fall light during the brief interludes between weather systems.
Surf and the Water
If you are a committed daily dipper, surfer or windsurfer then, with the frequently changing wind-direction, it will be important to seize the good moments and to pounce on the sheltered locations. Likewise, it would be best to simply forget about the much rougher options. Tidal movements will be medium-sized at the beginning of the week (highs of roughly 8m) and small by the end of the week (highs of roughly 7m). Those highs shifting incrementally, day by day, from the mid-morning to lunchtime.
The next forecast update will be on Sunday (NY’s Eve)…
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