Thursday
Weather
A nasty little low pressure system will pass directly overhead. Most of the winter storms we experience are centred over northwest Britain and at that distance our weather details become quite predictable. The few storms that, like this one, pass directly over us, are always wet and/or windy, but the precise timings and intensities are very difficult to forecast. Small changes in the track of the storm can easily double or halve the expected rainfall, and the wind story can be similarly affected. So, with my uncertainty explained, here is my latest expectation; heavy rain from around 8pm until 2pm (give or take an hour), possibly leading to some localised flooding; strengthening S’ly winds (force 4 at dawn increasing to force 7-8 by dusk), then gradually veering NW’ly and moderating over the course of the evening and night. After all that rain (and the accumulated rain of the previous days), the softness of the ground and the trees means that these winds will probably cause some damage.
Surf and the Water
Clean surf (8-10 feet at dawn, reducing to about 6 feet by dusk). Smallish tides, with a high of around 7.3m just before midday.
Friday
Weather
This day is now looking surprisingly nice. Previously the expectation of showers, driven by a cool NW’ly wind, looked quite grim. However, the wind is now looking very light (mostly force 3 in the morning, perhaps force 4 in the afternoon) and the showers look very few and far between. This means that we should enjoy some comfortable winter sunshine… the max temperature lower than of late (9-10°C rather than 12-13°C) but feeling so much more pleasant thanks to the change in the weather. Min temps overnight 6-7°C, with the breeze veering to a steady force 4 N’ly.
Surf and the Water
Although the wind will be onshore, it should be light enough that the 4 foot surf is still clean enough for some fun. Swimmers will find the nicest conditions along the south and east coasts, probably in the mid-late morning. High tide will be about 7m at lunchtime.
The Weekend
Weather
Two mostly dry days… the only threats of showers being very early on Saturday and very late on Sunday. If we do see any of those showers (they might simply pass by on the eastern horizon) then they will only be light, not like the hammerings of recent days. Skies should be a mixture of cloud and clear slots… Saturday probably weighted more towards the clarity and Sunday more towards the cloud. Dig out your hats, glove and scarves etc (maybe you got some new ones for Christmas)… temperatures will gradually slide from an 8-9°C max on Saturday to just a 7°C max on Sunday. The force 4-5 NNE’ly wind will make it feel even colder (especially on Sunday due those cloudier skies). However, during the night time, it probably won’t dip any lower than 5°C and ground frost is highly unlikely.
Surf and the Water
Cross-shore winds will largely spoil the surf, but if you want to give it a go then you should find a decent 4 foot swell on Saturday, followed by a dribbly 2 feet on Sunday. Swimming conditions will always be best along the south coast, but there will be one or two sheltered corners along the west coast too. Tidal movements will be very small, with lows around breakfast time and highs in the early/mid-afternoons (6.9m and 7m respectively).
Next Week
Weather
Similar to the weekend, there will be one or two showers in the Channel at times, but they are far more likely to miss the Islands and leave us with a simple mix of cloudy or sunny moments. The air will feel dry and cold, coming from central Europe. Cold enough that, should you see a shower on the horizon, then it could well have a little snow mixed into it. Winds will be force 5-6 ENE’ly for the most part, which will be a rather annoying spoiler of the otherwise beautiful winter weather. Be sure to wrap up very warm if you are going for a walk or if you are working outside (temperatures generally staying between 4 and 6°C, maybe slipping up to 7°C for a couple of the sunniest lunch hours).
Surf and the Water
Surf conditions will be fairly clean for much of the time. Wave heights are uncertain, but it currently looks as though we can expect some 3-5 feet swell in the first half of the week, followed by 1-3 foot swell in the second. Tidal movements will get larger, as the moon renews itself towards the end of the week… highs in the dark, lows around midday.
The next forecast update will be on Saturday morning…
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