Monday and Tuesday
Weather
A partly cloudy Monday morning, leading to a more fully cloudy and showery afternoon… those showers starting off as rain, probably turning to sleet by dusk and then snow in the evening. The key word is showers though, meaning that they will be brief, coming and going on the force 4-5 ENE’ly wind, some showers clipping one part of the Island, other showers clipping other parts. Considering this fleeting nature, we are very unlikely to see much accumulation of this snow (0-1cm is likely, but 2-3cm is possible). The thing to be most aware of is that the air and ground will fall to 0°C, so surfaces that are already wet from recent rain could become very icy and slippery. Moving on to Tuesday, the snow showers should clear off during the morning, probably around breakfast time, but maybe lingering a little longer. The afternoon should then be totally dry, rather cloudy but bright at times. The breeze will be ENE’ly again… picking up from force 3 at dawn to force 5 by dusk, keeping us firmly in the cold air (Tuesday should have a daytime max 4°C and an overnight min of 1°C).
Surf and the Water
Reasonably clean and powerful surf for these two days (although the wind will make it a little bumpy at times), picking up from about 2-3 feet on Monday to 4-6 feet on Tuesday. Low tides will be around 10am Monday and 11am Tuesday. High tides will be around 4pm Monday and 5pm Tuesday (7.4m and 7.8m respectively).
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
Finer drier weather, especially on Wednesday and Thursday, which should be mainly sunny. We will maintain the coldness through Wednesday though (max 5°C, with a biter wind-chill from the force 5-6 E’ly). Then, on Thursday, some slightly milder air will arrive as the wind backs to a NE’ly direction, so we should reach a max of 7°C or possibly even 8°C on that day. Once again however, the wind-chill will make it feel much colder than that. Then moving on to Friday, it will be a bit of give and take… cloudier skies but much gentler ENE’ly winds, all resulting in a very similar max temperature to Thursday’s.
Surf and the Water
The surf should be pretty clean throughout this time, roughly 5 feet on Wednesday, then about 3 feet Thursday and Friday. Low tides will be around lunchtime. High tides will be shortly before dawn and after dusk… increasing incrementally from about 8.2m Wednesday to 9.1m Friday.
The Weekend
Weather
There is the possibility of one or two light showers and there is also the possibility of one or two brief sunny spells. However, the vast majority of the weekend will simply be cloudy and grey. Bland as that may be, the general dryness and the lightness of the wind (N’ly force 2-3 on Saturday, then variable force 1-2 on Sunday) will make the 5-8°C temperature range feel relatively comfortable in all parts of the Island.
Surf and the Water
The surf should be 3 feet and really clean on Saturday, then 1-2 feet and fairly clean on Sunday. The west coast would be the best area for cold-water swimming on Saturday, then the south coast on Sunday. High tides will be at breakfast time (9.3m and 9.4m respectively). Low tides will be in the mid-afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Wednesday evening…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway