Thursday and Friday
Weather
Two fairly classic winter’s days, superb visibility in the cool air brought by the moderate force 4 NE’ly breeze. Thursday should see quite a lot of sunshine. Friday not so much, but the cloudscape will be beautiful, with slithers of brightness coming through the cracks. That breeze might occasionally pick up to fresh force 5, but it will also decrease to light force 3 at times. During those calmer moments, it’s not going to feel nearly as cold as the past few days. Max temperatures should now be 7-8°C in the afternoons, min temperatures about 4-5°C in the night time.
Surf and the Water
3 foot surf, a little choppier when the cross-shore breeze has its strongest moments, but nice and clean at other times. The south coast will offer the smoothest water for cold water swimmers. Tidal movements will be on the large side due to Thursday’s new moon. High tides will be around 6am and 6:30pm Thursday, then 7am and 7:30pm Friday (the biggest highs in the mornings… 8.6m and 9m respectively). Low tides will be at lunchtime.
The Weekend
Weather
These days are looking colder than Friday (especially Saturday) but they are looking just as cloudy. There will probably be some mistiness too, due to the wind changing to a light force 2-3 ESE’ly. The lightness of the wind will feel pleasant and barely noticeable, but it will be subtly masking the fact that it is bringing air across from Normandy, which will probably be blanketed in fog. As that fog departs Normandy, the relatively warm sea water will lift it and break it, but it will still be evident as low cloud by the time it reaches the Islands. Occasionally that cloud could be as low as 300 feet, which would temporarily bring visibility issues to the airport. This means that one or two delays are possible, but if they happen at all then they would no-doubt be very brief.
Surf and the Water
Clean 2-3 foot surf on Saturday, then absolute glassy 1-2 foot surf on Sunday. Tidal movements will be large though, so be mindful of currents because you wouldn’t want to be in that 9-10°C water for any longer than planned for. Highs will be at 7:45am Saturday (9.3m) and at 8:30am Sunday (9.4m). Lows will be in the mid-afternoons.
Next Week
Weather
The weather looks calm settled and cloudy on Monday (much like the weekend) there is a possibility of such conditions on Friday too. The bulk of the week will be unsettled though, with some heavy rain arriving on Tuesday night, then coming and going through Wednesday and Thursday, along with some fairly strong winds (generally either S’ly or E’ly). As the rain bumps into the cold air, it is expected to turn into snow in places, but there is a lot of uncertainty about whether this will be over the Channel Islands, over Northern France or over Southern Britain. If it does end up being over the Channel Islands, then it would most likely turn back to rain fairly soon, negating the risk of significant accumulation. Keep an eye on the updates to see how the story develops.
Surf and the Water
The surf will generally be clean but small… 1-2 feet and only really suitable for longboards and SUPs. Windsurfers and kite-surfers will certainly find some good opportunities, but there will also be sheltered nooks that are suitable for a quick winter swim. Tides will be shrinking day by day, with highs as big as 9.4m on Monday (mid-morning), becoming as small as 7.7m on Friday (lunchtime).
The next forecast update will be on Saturday…
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Swim Conditions
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