Sunday
Weather
Another largely grey day. Slight chance of some mist patches in the morning, but this will be balanced out by the chance of some sneaky rays of sunshine in the afternoon. Temperatures will mercifully reverse direction from Saturday’s plummet… picking up from about 3-4°C at dawn to about 6-7°C at dusk. Best of all is that the wind will be almost flat calm, so if you fancy a nice long winter walk then it should actually feel pretty comfortable.
Surf and the Water
The surf will most likely be flat. Even the biggest sets will only be one foot and weak. At least the beautifully glassy conditions will be good for our hardcore winter swimmers though. The spring tides will peak on this day, with a high of 9.5m at 8:30am, followed by a low of 1.1m at 3pm.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
Both days will be mostly cloudy but bright at times. There is the slight chance of a shower or two, but they will be so sparsely scattered that they are far more likely to miss the Islands than to hit them. Daily max temps will be 5-6°C. Nightly min temps will be 2-3°C. The main difference between the two days will be the wind. Monday’s will be moderate force 4 N’ly (so feeling pretty bitter unless you can find a sheltered area such as the south-coast cliffs and beaches), Tuesday’s will be light force 2 to 3 S’ly (so feeling relatively comfortable just about everywhere).
Surf and the Water
More flatness in the surf department. As for smooth-water swimming conditions, they will be best on the south coast on Monday and then best on the other coasts on Tuesday. High tides will be 9.4m at 9:15am on Monday, and 9.1m at 10am on Tuesday. Low tides will be at 3:45pm and at 4:30pm respectively.
Wednesday
Weather
This is the day that’s most under the microscope, because a wet and windy weather system is going to come up from the southwest, and bump into the cold air that has recently been wafting towards us from the north and the east. Most of the wet stuff in this weather system will be regular liquid rain, but the region that interacts directly with the cold air will be heavily laden with snow. The big question is whether that snow will be dumped on Northern France, Southern England, or somewhere in between… such as the Channel Islands. The various forecasting models all agree that this weather system will move across us (or very nearby) on Wednesday, but the precise positioning of that snow keeps shifting around, so we shall just have to be on standby until we get some consistency. Obviously, the temperature details will depend completely on which of these situations prevail.
Surf and the Water
More flat surf I’m afraid. Stronger winds might be of interest to windsurfers and kite-surfers, although the possibility of wintry weather might totally negate that interest. High tide will be about 8.8m at 10:45am. Low tide will be soon after dusk.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Depending on what happens on Wednesday, the Island will either be dry, wet or white on Thursday morning. Dry is perhaps the least likely scenario at that time, but by the end of Friday there will have been quite a lot of sunshine, with a moderate N’ly wind, so it will most likely be dry by then. Temperatures probably peaking at 6-7°C on Thursday, then 7-8°C on Friday. The south coast generally playing host to the most sheltered and comfortable conditions.
Surf and the Water
High tides will be around midday (8.1m and 7.5m respectively). Low tides will be shortly before dawn and after dusk. The surf is definitely looking flat on Thursday, but we might well have 2-3 feet of rideable slop on Friday. As for the best swimming conditions, they will be on the south coast on Thursday and then the east coast on Friday.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday morning…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway