Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
These two days are not at all similar to eachother, but they are conjoined by some significant weather that will consume most of the overnight period and quite a large chunk of Wednesday. The daylight hours of Tuesday should really be quite pleasant though… skies will be cloudier than on Monday, but winds will generally be lighter and there will be some hazy sunshine at times. The wind detail is as follows, virtually flat calm at dawn, finding a SE’ly direction through the morning and picking up to light force 3 for the afternoon. It won’t really be until evening time until it increases to a moderate force 4 E’ly and then after midnight it becomes a fresh force NE’ly. Whilst those winds increase overnight, we shall also see the arrival of rain and occasional sleet. This will persist through Wednesday morning before becoming light and patchy on Wednesday afternoon. The threat of proper settling snow seems to have almost disappeared now, but there is certainly the chance of some big wet snow-flakes being mixed in with the rainfall when it is heaviest. However, without any accumulation, it is little more than a pretty curiosity/minor irritant, depending on your perspective. Wednesday’s wind will stay fresh force 5 NE’ly, possibly nudging up to strong force 6 at times, so it’s going to feel much much colder than Tuesday, even though themometers will display a very similar max of 5-6 °C.
Surf and the Water
More rest and recovery time for surfers… flat as a pancake for another two days. Tuesday will be pretty good for our cold-water swimmers though, and Wednesday will have something for our kite-surfers and windsurfers. Tides will be 9.1m high at 10am Tuesday and 8.8m high at 10:45am Wednesday. Low tides will be around dusk.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
A couple of mostly sunny and probably dry days. The air will be inherently cool, which will be conducive to a few tall shower clouds developing over the relatively warm seas. A hail shower or two is possible, especially on Thursday, but they will be so few and far-between, that they are more likely to cruise by on the horizon than to actually hit the Islands. Thursday will have the brightest sunshine, but the moderate force 4 N’ly wind will have a chilling effect, meaning that the temperature really struggles to exceed 6°C. Friday’s wind will just be a light force 2-3 W’ly, meaning that we could nudge up to 8°C and it should actually feel quite warm compared to recent times.
Surf and the Water
More flatness in the surf department. As for smooth-water swimming conditions, they will be best on the south coast on Thursday and then be good on all coasts on Friday. High tides will be around midday (8.1m and 7.5m respectively). Low tides will be shortly before dawn and after dusk.
The Weekend
Weather
The weekend will be a story of gradually thickening cloud, gradually strengthening wind (SSW’ly, starting Saturday at moderate force 4 and likely finishing Sunday at strong force 7) and gradually rising temperature (starting Saturday around 7°C and finishing Sunday around 11°C). Most of the rain, associated with the low-pressure system responsible for those strong winds, will stay to the west of us. Generally west Brittany, and Southwest England will get a few thorough soakings whilst we generally only catch a few spits and spots. Fortunately, the only moments that threaten to give us a proper drenching are right in the middle of the night time (both Saturday and Sunday).
Surf and the Water
Saturday’s surf will be near-flat to begin with, but it should be about 4 feet and clean by dusk. Through Sunday, we should see a further increase to about 6 feet (and still pretty clean for most of the day). Windsurfers will find that the conditions just get better and better for them. High tides will be in the mid-afternoons (only little ones… roughly 7.1m and 7.2m respectively). Low tides will be around breakfast time.
The next forecast update will be on Thursday or Friday…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway