Wednesday and Thursday
Weather
Wednesday’s winds will gradually back from fresh force 5 SW’ly to moderate force 4 S’ly. Skies will be cloudy throughout, but the rain will really be reserved for the morning rush hour and for the evening. Temperatures will be on the high side… peaking at 13-14°C. At this time of year, with the sea being so cool, these high air temperature and moisture levels will mean poor visibility, so there will definitely be a risk of one or two delays up at the airport. Moving on to Thursday, we should see a distinct improvement, as the wind will be a moderate force 4 SSE’ly, bringing drier air, brighter skies and better visibility… max temps 12-13°C. The evening time will see a strengthening wind though, followed by some rather heavy overnight rain… quiet days don’t always lead to quiet nights.
Surf and the Water
Clean surf on both days (especially Thursday)… 2 feet gradually increasing to 4 feet. Some reasonable shelter for swimmers in the southern corners of the Bays (on both the east and the west coasts). Big tides though (and therefore strong currents)… Wednesday’s high water will be 9.6m at 9:40am and low water will be at 4pm. Thursday’s high water will be 8.9m at 10:20am and low water will be at 4:40pm.
Friday
Weather
Thursday night’s rather heavy rain will fortunately have cleared off well before dawn. Then, with sunny skies and a rather fresh and gusty WNW’ly wind, the puddles will probably have all gone by late morning. Once again, a fine day does not mean a fine night… this time the winds will not be so strong, but they will gradually return to a SSW’ly direction, bringing low cloud mist and drizzle to the Islands in time for the weekend. Temperatures will be about 11°C day and night.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be 4 feet and messy on the west coast, but the windsurfing and kite-surfing conditions will be reasonable there. Sea-swimmers will definitely want to stick to the east coast (or possibly have a dabble with the most sheltered south-coast nooks, such as Saints’ Bay). Tides will be high at 11am (8m) and low at 5:20pm.
The Weekend
Weather
Certainly not a fabulous weekend weather-wise… Saturday looks drizzly and murky (much like Wednesday), then Sunday looks more showery, less murky but still rather cloudy. Saturday’s wind will most likely be a force 3-4 SSW’ly, then Sunday’s will most likely be a force 4-5 WNW’ly. Temperatures peaking at 12-13°C on Saturday, then 11-12°C on Sunday.
Surf and the Water
Clean 3-4 foot surf on Saturday, then much bigger (maybe 6-8 feet) but also much messier surf on Sunday. Tides will be high at lunchtime. Just little ones… 7.3m on Saturday and 6.6m on Sunday.
Next Week
Weather
In these rather changeable regimes, we do see moments of settled weather, but they are never long enough to be particularly predictable at more than a few days’ notice. Broadly speaking, the first half of the week looks like the driest, brightest and least windy. The second half of the week is basically looking like the opposite of that. Temperatures will be very similar to the previous week… generally peaking around 11-13°C during the daytime and not likely to fall any lower than 9°C during the night time.
Surf and the Water
The surf should be about 6 feet throughout the week, but it’s certainly looking cleaner in the second half of the week than the first. The back-end of the week should also be the best time for kite-surfing and windsurfing. The east coast should consistently be the best area for sea-swimming. Tides will be very small on Monday and Tuesday, with mid to late afternoon highs of less than 7m. From Wednesday onward, the times of high water will be shortly before dawn and after dusk, and the size of those tides will gradually increase from 7.3m to 8.4m.
The next forecast update will be on Friday evening…
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Swim Conditions
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