Monday
Weather
Moderate force 4 W’ly winds will bring a mostly cloudy morning, followed by a slightly brighter afternoon. The only rain will be a brief drizzly shower or two, in the late morning (possibly lingering into lunchtime). Temperatures will be as mild as we have become accustomed to, peaking around 12°C. A tiny bit cooler overnight though… falling to 7 or 8°C when the wind drops off to light force 2-3 and we enjoy one or two moments of starry sky.
Surf and the Water
Choppy 6 foot west-coast surf… slightly cleaner towards the end of the day, when the onshore wind is lightest. The east coast will certainly be the best area for a winter swim. Low tide will be at 8:40am. High tide (just a tiny 6.3m) will be at 3pm.
Tuesday
Weather
It’s looking cloudy but mostly dry through daylight hours. There will probably be a little mist and drizzle on the high ground of the Island at times (to be expected with a SW’ly wind gradually increasing from moderate force 4 to fresh force 5) but it should be pretty minimal. The real wet stuff will come during the night, probably arriving around midnight, becoming heaviest shortly before dawn Wednesday. Max temp 10-11°C, min temp 9-10°C.
Surf and the Water
Fairly clean 6-8 foot west-coast surf. Good swimming conditions along the east coast as again (as well as the north coast in the morning). Low tide will be at 10:20am. High tide (6.8m) will be at 4:20pm.
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
This is looking like the wettest and windiest end of the working week, with persistent rain, drizzle and mist on Wednesday, followed by occasional heavy showers on Thursday and Friday. Those latter showery days should have some sunny intervals as well, but that won’t do much to compensate for the strong force 6 (or maybe strong force 7) WSW’ly wind. Temperatures should peak at 11-12°C on Wednesday and Thursday, but only 9°C on Friday (that cooler air meaning that the showers will possibly have some hail mixed in with them). Overnight temperatures will only be a degree or so lower than the daytime temperatures, due to the consistency of the wind.
Surf and the Water
Big surf every day… likely 8-10 feet and reasonably clean on Wednesday, the 10-15 feet and choppy on Thursday and Friday. Tides will be getting bigger, with highs before dawn and around dusk… roughly 7.4m on Wednesday, 7.9m on Thursday and 8.4m on Friday.
The Weekend
Weather
It’s looking very stormy at the moment, with a deep low pressure system (highly likely to become a named storm) tracking across Northern France and Southern Britain… with the Channel Islands obviously slap-bang in the middle of all that action. We will most likely have prolonged heavy rain on Saturday, followed by sunshine and occasional heavy showers on Sunday. Temperatures will be pretty academic… generally around 10°C on Saturday and 9°C on Sunday. The wind will likely be the most significant element… gale force or perhaps severe gale force SSW’ly winds will probably develop on Saturday, then fall slack and variable later for a time overnight, before a strong and gusty NW’ly or N’ly takes us through Sunday. However those details might change as the weekend approaches, if we discover that the storm follows a slightly different path.
Surf and the Water
Saturday looks likely to have the cleanest surf in the north and west, but it could be very hard to manage the strength of the wind. Sunday looks likely to have some clean waves on the south coast. Wave-size will completely depend on the speed and angle of the storm’s approach, but it will most likely to be big enough for the north and south coasts to be working (if experts are interested). Tides will be high around dawn and in the mid-evenings… slightly under 9m on Saturday, slightly over on Sunday.
The next forecast update will be on Thursday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway