Monday
Weather
Very strong, occasionally gale force, NNE’ly from the small hours of the morning and through the vast majority of the day. It won’t be until late evening, possibly even after midnight, before the winds relax to fresh force 5, and eventually moderate force 4 by dawn Tuesday. Some quite significant tree damage is highly likely, due to the unusual wind direction and due to the very soggy ground that we have at the moment. Weather-wise for Monday, the morning should be dray (from around 6 or 7am onward) but cloudy, then the afternoon should gradually become quite sunny. Max temp just 8°C, min temp around 5°C.
Surf and the Water
Choppy 4-5 foot surf but with a ridiculously strong wind. The only sheltered spots will be along the south coast but even there it will be much windier than ideal for winter swimmers. Tides will be 9m high around 7:45am and 8.8m high around 8pm. Expect some very big splashes along the east coast at those times, especially in the morning. Low tide will be around 2:15pm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
Maybe a shower or two in the daytime, if so then it would only be the briefest spit and spot. The only time when it looks as though we might have a heavier shower or two is during the night time (both nights) but even they will be rather brief and insignificant compared to recent rainfall. Both days should be a mixture of cloud and sunshine (the sunshine always rather soft and hazy though). Best of all will be the gentleness of the breeze… just a light force 2-3 (N’ly gradually backing W’ly on Tuesday then NW’ly backing S’ly on Wednesday). Max temps 9-10°C. Min temps 7-8°C.
Surf and the Water
The west coast surf will be 2 feet and pretty clean on Tuesday, then about 3 feet and very clean on Wednesday. These will also be the best two days of the week for winter swimmers. Tides will be high at breakfast time (9m and 8.8m respectively). Low tides will be in the mid-afternoons.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
A couple of windier days (not nearly as windy as Monday though)… force 4 increasing force 5 on Thursday then force 6 decreasing force 5 on Friday. The wind direction will generally be SW’ly in the mornings and W’ly in the afternoons… these changes in direction relating to the passing of some showery weather fronts which are currently expected to be around lunchtime on both days. Therefore, it would be quite a good idea to take a rain coat to work/school, even if it doesn’t feel like you need it a t breakfast time. Max temps… 11°C on Thursday, then 9-10°C on Friday.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be about 3 feet on Thursday and 4-5 feet on Friday. Both days reasonably clean in the mornings, then increasingly choppy in the afternoons. Swimming conditions will generally be best in the east, but there will be a couple of cosy nooks in the west and the north that will also be reasonably smooth. Tides will be high in the mid-mornings (8.8m and 8.1m respectively), and they will be low in the mid-afternoons.
The Weekend
Weather
Sunshine and showers on both days, but the showers looking most frequent and rather heavy on Saturday. On Sunday, the showers might be so sparsely scattered that they miss us altogether (possibly). The winds are currently looking nice and relaxed though, so there should be a lot of time when it feels very pleasant and quite spring-like. Saturday should have a rather miserly max temp of just 8-9°C but the breeze will only be a light force 3 WSW’ly. Sunday should be slightly more generous, with a max of 9-10°C and the breeze should be just a light force 3 S’ly.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be increasingly clean as the weekend progresses, but it will be reducing in size… probably about 5 feet at the start of Saturday, reducing to 2-3 feet by the end of Sunday. Tides will be high in the late mornings (7.8m and 7.3m respectively), and they will be low in the late afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday evening…
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Swim Conditions
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Lihou Causeway