Monday
Weather
Rain or drizzle for the majority of the time between mid-morning and dusk. The winds will be force 5-6 SSE’ly in general, but they might just touch strong force 7 for a brief moment early afternoon. This is going to feel really chilly, even though the temperature isn’t especially low… 7°C gradually increasing to 9°C. Through the evening, the wind will change to a moderate force 4 SW’ly, and then veer to a WNW’ly after midnight, eventually bringing some heavy showers, perhaps heavy enough for some hail and a few rumbles of thunder.
Surf and the Water
Clean 1-2 foot surf (maybe a couple of 3 footers around dawn if we are lucky). Otherwisse, it’s really going to become more of a day for windsurfing and kite-surfing. Tiny tidal movements, with a high of just 6.9m at 11:45am. Low water will be shortly before dawn and dusk.
Tuesday
Weather
Sunshine and heavy showers, possibly with hail. Those showers will be concentrated into the first half of the day, becoming lighter and fewer in the second (perhaps even drying up completely). Winds will be moderate force 4 WNW’ly (occasionally light F3 or perhaps even lighter in Town). Temperatures will peak at roughly 10°C at lunchtime (maybe 11°C in Town), then drop off to 6 or 7°C during the night time.
Surf and the Water
The wind and tide will be almost identical to what we saw on Sunday, but the swell will be almost double. Therefore west-coast surfers (not beginners) can expect some fun 6-8 foot lumps and bumps. If it’s swimming that you are keen on then the east coast will generally be smoothest, but some of the south-coast spots… Petit Bot, Saints and Moulin Huet will be similarly lovely. Low water will be around dawn and dusk. High water will be just after 1pm (6.7m).
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
A mixture of cloud and sunshine but most likely dry, right up until Friday night when a period of rain is expected. The most notable feature will be the wind, mainly because it will be blowing from a SE’ly (occasionally E’ly) direction, meaning that the east coast will feel particularly breezy compared to most previous days. Wednesday will be moderate force 4 gradually picking up to fresh force 5. Thursday and Friday will be fresh force 5, perhaps occasionally sprucing up to strong force 6 (the strongest winds most likely on Thursday evening). Max temps generally 11°C (perhaps 12°C if we are lucky). Min temps generally around 8°C.
Surf and the Water
Three fantastic days for surfers… 3-5 feet for the majority of the time (and super-clean), probably picking up to 4-6 feet through Thursday. Swimming will also be best on the west coast due to the wind direction, but obviously the more protected bays like Cobo will be the best places for that. The tides will still be on the small side but they will begin to advance towards the huge equinox springs of next week… Wednesday’s high will be 6.8m at 3:15pm, Thursday’s 7.6m at 4:30pm, Friday’s 8.4m at 5:30pm.
The Weekend
Weather
The strength of the wind is uncertain (something between moderate force 4 and strong force 6), but I’m pretty confident about the directional shift from SE’ly to NE’ly. Meaning that it will feel rather chilly in all parts… max temperatures likely decreasing by a degree or two per day. Skies are likely to be cloudier than the previous days, and showers (probably only light) will become increasingly likely.
Surf and the Water
Smaller (possibly flat) surf on Saturday, but likely some quite bug surf on Sunday. The wind will be a bit cross-shore, so if it is quite strong then this might make it a bit choppy and difficult. High water will be around dawn and dusk. The strength of the onshore wind is uncertain but there is potential for the east coast to become quite messy on Sunday, as the tides will be about 9.7m.
The next forecast update will be on Wednesday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway