Sunday
Weather
A very murky morning, as Saturday night’s heavier rain fades into light drizzle, with mist and hill fog. This means that there is a risk of delays up at the airport. Hopefully not too long-lasting though, because a temporary clearance is expected wither in the late morning or early afternoon. That said, the problems might not be completely over, because there is a chance that the mist and murk will return in the evening. Wind-wise, we are looking at moderate force 4 SW’ly winds in the morning, followed by light force 3 WSW’ly breezes during the afternoon and overnight. Temperatures will depend on how much brightness we see when the cloud lifts and thins, but we will most likely manage a comfortable 14°C in St Peter Port, perhaps only 13°C across the other parishes.
Surf and the Water
Clean 3-4 foot surf, gradually changing into 4-5 foot choppy surf. Some decent swimming conditions on the west coast in the morning, but really confined to the north and east coasts in the afternoon. High tide will be about 7.9m at 11:10am. Low tide will be at 5:30pm.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
Probably a few showers around dawn on Monday, possibly continuing through the morning rush hour. However, the rest of the day is looking dry and rather fine, with high cloud allowing hazy sunshine to filter through and lift the temperature to about 13 or 14°C again. The wind backing from a force 3-4 WSW’ly to a 3 SSW’ly. Through Tuesday, we will probably maintain that wind direction, as well as the general description of hazy sunshine. However, there will be a large area of rain sitting over the mouth of the Channel and it would only take a small error in this forecast for that rain to park itself right on top of us instead. As such, the most likely Tuesday max will be 14-15°C with that hazy sunshine, but there is a chance that we will get stuck between 12 and 13°C if we end up getting drenched.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be 4-5 feet and rather choppy on Monday, but really quite clean on Tuesday. Tiny tidal movements will be great for most activities on the water, due to all the currents being much slower and weaker… Monday’s high water will be 6.3m at 12:30pm, Tuesday’s will be 6.2m at 2:50pm.
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
Wednesday will see a gradual transition from the SSW’ly flow of the previous days to a NE’ly by dusk. It’s very uncertain whether we will stay dry or not on Wednesday, but there is certainly a chance of catching some showers as a low pressure system passes very nearby to the west, sliding southward from Land’s End to Bordeaux. Thursday and Friday will then follow a simple story of sunshine and showers, as a force 4 to 5 WNW’ly brings slightly cooler across the Islands. Max temps probably 14°C on Wednesday, the 12-13°C on Thursday and Friday.
Surf and the Water
Tides will be low in the late mornings and high in the late afternoons, increasing from 6.7m on Wednesday to 7.8m on Friday. The surf will be 2-3 feet and rather messy, although there will probably be some cleaner moments when the cross-onshore winds fall a bit lighter. Swimming conditions will generally be best along the east and south coasts.
Next Weekend
Weather
It’s a long way away, so forecast confidence is typically low. However, current expectations are for gusty force 5-6 NW’ly winds to bring sunshine and showers on Saturday, then for moderate force 4 N’ly breezes to bring dryness and sunshine on Sunday. Max temps 11-12°C.
Surf and the Water
Choppy 3-4 foot surf on the west coast, but some decent swimming conditions in sheltered nooks along the east and south coasts. Low tides will be at lunchtime. High tides will be around dawn and dusk (roughly 8.3m increasing incrementally to 8.7m).
The next forecast update will be on Monday evening …
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway