Thursday
Weather
Storm Nelson will be parked just west of the Channel, so that’s a little further south than initially expected and as such we can now expect the SSW’ly wind to be strong force 7 at times, maybe even gale force 8. Waves will be huge and there will be quite a bit of surge that can be added to the astronomical tide predictions (8.9m and 8.7m), so the west coast road will be quite a lot more splashy than we would usually expect from such tides (8:15am and 8:30pm). Rain will be on and off through both the morning and the afternoon, and it will be really quite heavy at times. That said, there will probably be some sunny intervals in the afternoon, so you might salvage a little pleasantness if you have a very tall-walled garden. Max temp 11°C. Min temp 8°C.
Surf and the Water
Huge surf on the west coast… 12-15 feet, but this does mean that the north coast could be absolutely great for experts. The strength of the wind does mean that beginners and intermediates should probably give it a miss though. High tide will be at 8:15am and low tide will be at 2:30pm… both tides will probably at least a foot higher than the astronomical predictions.
Good Friday and Saturday
Weather
Significantly gentler winds on Friday… still SSW’ly, but only fresh force 5 in the morning and moderate force 4 in the afternoon and overnight. Weather-wise, there’s only the chance of a shower, probably around late morning or lunchtime, in an otherwise dry day, with a mixture of cloudy and sunny skies. The temperature should climb to 12°C in most areas, and probably continue to 13°C in Town. Daylight hours on Saturday will see a continuation of the dry and pleasant weather, as the force 4 wind backs to a SE’ly direction. However, we will probably see some heavy showers move up from France through the evening and overnight, before clearing northwards and leaving us with a dry start to Easter Sunday, except with slightly lighter winds and slightly cloudier skies. Saturday’s max temperature will most likely be the same as Good Friday’s, but this time the warmest location will probably be in the west rather than in Town.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf should be gorgeously clean both days… 5-6 feet on Good Friday and 3-4 feet on Saturday. Tides will be high at breakfast time… about 8.8m on Good Friday and about 8.4m on Saturday. Low tides will be in the mid-afternoons.
Easter Sunday and BH Monday
Weather
The skies will probably be bright at times, but on this occasion the showers will probably be coming and going from as early as midday or even 11am. The breeze will be E’ly on this occasion and it will probably drop off to light force 3, meaning that the drier brighter moments should feel very pleasant and the temperature might even climb as high as 14°C. Easter Monday will see a change of wind direction, back to a slightly cooler SW’ly (max temp just 12°C). This will continue to bring showers to the area, but they should be much fewer and further between, so the sunny spells should be much longer and brighter.
Surf and the Water
Super-clean surf on Easter Sunday, slightly choppier surf on Easter Monday, both days about 2-3 foot. Tides will be high in the late mornings… roughly 8m on Easter Sunday and roughly 7.5m on Easter Monday.
Next Week
Weather
Another week of S’ly or SW’ly winds, moderate at times, fresh or strong at others, but at least it doesn’t look as though they will be gale force on any occasion. Temperatures will therefore be a little above average (peaking in the low to mid-teens), but you will have to dodge the occasional shower or longer spell of rain to be able to really enjoy it. There will certainly be the odd half day of sunshine here and there but, at this long range, there is no way of confidently predicting the timing.
Surf and the Water
The surf will generally be big and clean. Swimmers will find opportunities on all coasts except the south. High tides will be best for finding shelter… shifting incrementally from lunchtime on Tuesday (6.7m) to around 5pm on Friday (7.7m).
The next forecast update will be on Saturday…
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