Guernsey Weather Fox

I ended my last forecast with a reference to an Atlantic hurricane that would give us some amazing surf at the end of next week. Since then, the hurricane has been named Lorenzo and we have a slightly better idea of where it's going to go, which has unfortunately led to a severe squeeze on next week's finer weather. So, yes there will be some lovely moments to seize, but the headline words for the coming fortnight are still ‘very unsettled indeed’

Friday.

This is the windiest day of this working week; force 6 to 7 WSW'ly throughout. On the plus side, it doesn't look as though we will have any prolonged periods of rain, just the odd fleeting shower, that you would have to be rather unlucky to catch.

Surf and Tide

Another 10-foot and wild day. The tides will be a bit larger than ideal for these conditions; 8.9m at 6:10am and 9.4m at 6:30pm, so lots of splashes and debris along the usual stretches if west-coast road.

Saturday

This still looks like the nicer of the weekend days; almost identical to Friday but with a slightly smaller risk of catching a shower and with that, slightly longer spells of sunshine. To best escape that WSW’ly wind, head towards Pleinmont if you are on the West coast, or head to anywhere between Town and Fermain.

Surf and Tide

Only a smidge less massive than on Friday. Still pretty fun for the very experienced surfers, especially on the spring high at you-know-where. And of coarse, an absolute blast for windsurfers . The tides will be about 9.5 and 10m high at 7am and 7:20pm respectively.

Sunday

Weather

Slightly better news regarding the massive tides, because the wind (although still very strong force 7) is no longer expected to be from a southerly direction at the critical times, so the worst conditions should really be confined to the west coast and probably not the east anymore. Indeed, the force 7 SSW’ly wind should have veered SW’ly by dawn and then W’ly by the afternoon. The worst blast probably being during the morning, when some areas might even see moments of gale force 8. During the early morning we will be in for a lengthy spell of heavy rain, but we should be mostly (if not entirely) dry through the afternoon.

Surf and Tide

Really big and chaotic surf. A nasty combination of factors for the massive tides on the west coast, but not quite as bad as they could be. In the morning, the tide will be about 10m at 7:40am. It could be a bit higher due to storm surge, but thankfully the wind will still be SW’ly rather than W’ly and the greatest strength will be yet to come. In the evening, the tide will be about 10.25m at 8pm. This is the more worrying tide due to the increase in wave heights as well as the great depth of water. On the plus side, with the storm now passed to the east, pressure should be rising, so the threat of storm surge will be reduced. The wind direction (W’ly) is really not a good one, but this should also be reducing as the storm moves away, possibly down to force 6 by then.

Monday and Tuesday

A ridge of high pressure will bring a relatively settled day on Monday. We should see long sunny spells and winds reduced to only force 4-5 (enjoy that one). Overnight into Tuesday, strong wind and rain will return, probably spoiling the Tuesday morning rush hour, but then turning to isolated showers by the afternoon.

The Rest of Next Week

Wednesday looking just as gorgeous as it was previously, thanks to a lovely big ridge of high pressure. As ex hurricane Lorenzo moves closer, we could then have some really tropical temperatures on Thursday. However, by next Friday and then through the first weekend of October, it’s back to the same old soaking wet and very windy.