Guernsey Weather Fox

Wednesday

Weather

With a N’ly airflow extending all the way from the Arctic to the Channel Islands and beyond, we certainly aren’t in for a warm day. However, because it’s only early October, we are only talking about temperatures ranging between about 13-15C for the max and 8-10C for the min. If it was mid-winter, then the same airflow would bring a hard frost and a risk of sleety showers. Anyway, back to the real world; although rather cool, it will at least be much more settled than recent days. Winds will kick off with a force 4-5 NNE’ly, dropping off to a force 2-3 N’ly in the afternoon and then virtually calm through the evening and most of the night. The morning should be mostly cloudy but dry, and then we should see some lengthy spells of sunshine in the afternoon.

Surf and Tide

Those splashy high-tides are really simmering down now, with just a 9.6m high at 9:50am. As for low water, well that’s still going to be great for a trip to Lihou or down onto the south coast beaches; just 0.9m at 4:10pm. Surf-wise, the early morning will be a bit choppy but the late-morning and lunchtime sessions will be 3-5ft and gorgeously clean. Fingers crossed, the tide might just rise enough for a semi-decent sundowner session as well.

Thursday

Weather

With Hurricane Lorenzo knocking on West Ireland’s door, a S’ly wind will establish itself through the morning. Being a good distance away from the action though, it certainly won’t be a gale; rather just a force 3-4 in the morning and then force 4-5 in the afternoon. Then it won’t be until the night time that it changes to a strong force 6 W’ly. Weather-wise, there's a chance of some sunshine at times, but most of the day will be cloudy and grey, ahead of a wet wet wet evening.

Surf and Tide

With a mix of short-period slop and occasional pulses of small but really strong long-period swell, it’s hard to tell whether this is going to be an amazing day or just bog standard. My gut feeling is pretty optimistic to be honest, but we shall have to see. With a 9m high at 10:20am, it could be great at any time during the morning, but I think the midday session probably holds the most promise.

Friday

Weather

Unfortunately the forecast track of ex-Hurricane Lorenzo is becoming more confident, meaning that we are in for a very windy day; force 6-7 W’ly winds (probably WSW’ly in the morning and WNW’ly in the evening). Weather-wise, it’s probably going to be a mixed bag of sunshine and showers, with temperatures ranging between a 14C overnight min and a 17C daytime max.

Surf and Tide

12-15ft waves will rather tragically be accompanied by a howling onshore wind. The best chance of something semi clean and classic is up at L’Ancresse. Any time of day will do, but I would probably go for the morning, when there is more likely to be a small S’ly component to the wind. High water is only 8.4m at 11am, but with all that swell and near gale onshore winds, there’s a slim risk that the west coast roads may be almost as messy as they were over the weekend.

The Weekend

This part of the forecast is still a bit uncertain, due to the abnormality of having to deal with a recently deceased hurricane. However, the outlook is fairly positive at the moment, with daytime Saturday looking dry with hazy sunshine and very light winds indeed; Saturday night then taking the lions’ share of the rain, with only a few showers continuing into Sunday morning. Sunday’s winds will probably be fresh force 5 NW’ly, so it won’t feel as comfortable as on Saturday. If you’re heading to the beach on Saturday, then the north and west coasts should be best, with some pretty fantastic surf leftover by Lorenzo. As for a Sunday afternoon stroll, then the best beaches and coast paths will certainly be in the south and the southeast.

Next Week

SW’ly winds will bring temperatures that are about average or marginally above. Showers and soggy weather-fronts will come and go, with a good deal of dry time in-between. Check my Sunday evening update for a good idea of the daily details.