Guernsey Weather Fox

Thursday

Weather

A cooler airmass, since the passage of Wednesday evening’s cold front. This will mean that most parishes only just reach 20°C for the max temp, despite quite a lot of sunshine in the morning and even more during the afternoon. The breeze will be just a light force 2-3 WNW’ly… very light and comfortable in all areas. However, St Peter Port, with its urbanity and with its extra little bit of shelter, might just sneak up to 21°C.

Surf and the Water

Cleanish 1-2 foot surf (just a light onshore wind). Very week and dribbly but this will be ok for young kids etc. Smooth swimming conditions just about everywhere, but especially so on the south and east coasts. The Bordeaux area should be particularly lovely through the afternoon. Low water will be around 10am and high water (6.8m) will be around 4pm.

Friday

Weather

Apart from a slight change in the wind (just as light but coming from a NE’ly direction), the morning and the afternoon should be almost identical Thursday. In this instance, if the copious sunshine manages to take anywhere up to 21°C, then it would probably be around Torteval and its neighbouring parishes. The one time of day that looks a bit different is the evening time, when thundery showers will drift up from France. They will be quite slow to progress northwards and they will be losing their potency as they do so, meaning that we are highly likely to stay dry. However, there is the slight chance of a brief downpour, so it’s best to be aware of this if you are planning such things as barbecues and beach parties.

Surf and the Water

Marginally larger surf than on Tuesday… mainly 2 feet, but with the odd 3 footer here and there. Again, most coasts should be pretty smooth, because the wind will only be light, but the south coasts will be the loveliest of all for swimming, kayaking and paddle-boarding. Tides will be low at 11:15am and high at 5:15pm (7.3m).

The Weekend

Weather

The showers that posed the threat of hitting the Islands on Friday night, will still be there in some capacity on Saturday morning, albeit more diffuse and generally just making for a cloudy sky. The afternoon is looking lovely and sunny though, with the wind remaining NE’ly. Sunday then looks like the reverse, with the morning being fabulously sunny but the afternoon increasingly cloudy. That cloudy finish to Sunday being due to the presence of a low pressure system just to the west of the Channel, which will likely bring some rain overnight but not until well after dusk. Sunday’s wind will be almost non-existent, just the gentlest breath from no particular direction. It will therefore feel very comfortable but the height of the temperature will depend entirely on how much sunshine manages to survive that invasion of cloud from the west. The most likely max temps are 21-22°C on Saturday and 22-23°C on Sunday.

Surf and the Water

I’m afraid the surf is looking pretty close to flat, but if there is the odd rideable ripple then it will at least be lovely and clean on Sunday (and maybe on Saturday evening too). Saturday’s swimming conditions should be best along the south coast and in a few corners of the west coast bays. Sunday’s swimming conditions will be fantastic on all coasts. Tides will be high around breakfast-time and dinnertime (increasing incrementally from 7.4m to 8.3m). Low tides will be at lunchtime.

Next Week

Weather

The low pressure system that I just described as being just west of the Channel, is what is known as a cu-off low. This is where it isn’t driven by the jet stream in the usual way… across the Atlantic, northwest Britain and off to Norway. In this case it will simply remain stationary until it dies in situ. Each day, thundery showers will develop over the larger landmasses during the afternoons and then they will circulate through the night time, gradually diminishing towards the following before being re-invigorated by daytime heating. For the Channel Islands, this will mean that we see a lot dramatic cloudscapes, lit up by warm sunshine in the daytime or framing the stars by night. Showers will have the potential to be very heavy for us, but very few of them will actually bump into the Islands as they move northwards across the Channel. The anticlockwise circulation of the low pressure system will mean that our winds will often have either a S’ly component or an E’ly, so we can expect temperatures to be elevated by the warmth of the nearby continent. Typical maxima… 22-23°C, typical minima… 16-18°C.

Surf and the Water

The surf will be clean, but generally weak and sloppy… 1 foot when smallest, 3 feet when biggest. Swimming conditions should be lovely on most coasts, most days, although the currents will be relatively strong because tidal movements will be large. High tides will be around breakfast time and dusk… the smallest being 8.4m on Monday morning and the largest being 9.2m on Wednesday evening. Low tides will be in the early afternoons.