Monday (Autumnal Equinox) and Tuesday
Weather
I’ve been careful to point out how uncertain the forecast has been of late and therefore not to be too precise, so I hope it hasn’t been too frustrating to see so many changes from one update to the next. I certainly haven’t managed to find a single forecaster, computer or human, that has managed to pin down any detail beyond the next 48 hours with any accuracy. So now, as the weekend puddles evaporate very slowly in the cold air of the new season, we can at least look forward to a few days of relative predictability. The reason for this, along with the coldness, is that we are locking in to a NE’ly airflow, bringing air down from the Arctic via Scandinavia. The air will be increasingly dry, so although we shall see a mix of long sunny spells and the odd brief shower on both days, the showers should be much fewer and further between on Tuesday. Monday’s winds will be fresh force 5 at dawn, decreasing light force 3 by dusk. Tuesday’s should be light force 3, occasionally moderate force 4 around lunchtime. This means that the rather pathetic 15-16°C maxima really won’t feel warm, unless you find a sheltered southwest facing area, such as Petit Port or Jaonnet Bay. Night time temperatures will be very low too, dropping to 10°C on Monday night and 9°C on Tuesday night.
Surf and the Water
Well done to anyone who salvaged a surf at the weekend, because there will be nothing but flatness through these two days. Swimmers will find sheltered and therefore smoother waters at the east end of the south-coast bays or at the north end of the west-coast bays. Water temperatures around 17-18°C and falling. Spring tides, with highs of 9.1m to 9.3m around breakfast time and soon after dusk. The only one that might be a tiny bit splashy, is the Monday morning one, along the east coast only.
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
Dry and sunny, until skies turn cloudy later Friday. Temperatures will still be on the low side, but it will feel way more pleasant due to much lighter winds than previously… light force 2-3 NNE’ly on Wednesday and Thursday, then variable light force 1-2 (basically flat calm) on Friday. This will yield daily maxima of 16°C, 16°C, and 17°C respectively. Some chillier nights though, with minima of about 8°C the first two nights, then recovering to about 10 or 11°C on Friday night.
Surf and the Water
Cleanish 1-2 foot surf on Wednesday and Thursday, then (hopefully) gorgeously clean 3 foot surf on Friday. Beautifully smooth swimming conditions, especially on the south coast Wednesday and Thursday and then on all coasts on Friday. Tides will start to shrink, with mid-morning highs of about 9.1m, 8.9m and 8.5m respectively. Low tides will be in the mid-afternoons (much to the frustration of school-bound surfers).
The Weekend
Weather
Forecast confidence falls off a cliff at this point. Rain is expected to have arrived on Friday night, initiating an unsettled weekend, with low pressure taking the reins from the stable high of the working week. Winds will be stronger and generally SE’ly or S’ly. This will bring noticeably milder air, but with weather fronts either depositing their rain overhead, or spreading their cloud from somewhere nearby, we probably won’t see temperatures any higher than 18 or 19°C.
Surf and the Water
With hurricane (soon to become ex-hurricane) Gabrielle having been resident mid-Atlantic through the week, we will hopefully see some super-clean and super-solid surf… 4-6 feet being likely, but (as Erin) demonstrated, it could possibly be double that. Wind strength is uncertain, but it might be strong enough to entertain the windsurfers and kitesurfers too. Tides will be 8.2m high at 10am Saturday, then 7.4m at 10:30am Sunday. Low tides will be in the late afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday evening…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway