Friday
Weather
The storm has now been named as Ingrid. The wind speeds do not look as extreme as Goretti, but they do look severe enough to be damaging, especially in the latter part of the day, so preparation is wise, whether that be bringing things in from outdoors, or just being aware that tree damage may cause some roads to close. The mixed sunshine and showers story will be similar to Thursday and the temperature not vastly different, with a 9°C max. Much much stronger winds though, with a SSE’ly increasing from force 5-6 at dawn to force 7-8 by dusk. Max gusts currently expected to be around 60mph. These are much lower figures than Goretti achieved but the ground is much wetter so some trees will be vulnerable nonetheless, so take care and heed all the official warnings from Jersey Met and the advice of the local authorities. Watch out for the tides as well, which with this wind will be very splashy along the east coast as well as the west (9:15am and 9:35pm).
Surf and the Water
The west coast surf will be about 6 feet at dawn, then 8-10 feet by dusk. However, the wind will be far too strong to be safe, except perhaps for that dawn session, but even that one will be pretty undesirable. High tides will be very splashy on all coasts (9:15am and 9:35pm) with storm surge likely adding quite a lot to the raw astronomical values of 8.8m and 8.5m. low tide will be at 3:40pm.
Saturday
Weather
The S’ly wind will still be strong force 7 at dawn, but it will relax nicely to moderate force 4 by dusk, all of this feeling much much calmer than the previous day and night. Weather-wise, it’s kind of the reverse of the wind story, with the breezy morning being bright and dry, then the gentle afternoon regrettably turning cloudy and eventually wet. Max temps only 8-9°C on this occasion, and a rather cool night as well, with a min of just 5°C.
Surf and the Water
Super-clean and very powerful surf… 10+feet on the west coast, 4-6 feet hopefully on the north. The morning winds will still be stronger than ideal, but the afternoon winds will be moderate force 4, so hopefully the keen will score something special then. Tides will be about 8.8m high at 9:15am, then low at 4:15pm.
Sunday
Weather
Skies will be mostly cloudy and showers will come and go. We may see a few brief sunny intervals though, and then winds are looking even more relaxed, probably dawning with a moderate force 4 SW’ly and then dusking with a light force 3 SE’ly. Temps on the low side again, peaking at only 8-9°C, then falling to an overnight low of 5°C.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be similarly big and clean as on Saturday. However, the tides will be a bit smaller and later. High water being about 8.5m around 10:30am and then low tide being around 5pm. The high tide splashes really being reserved for the west coast on this occasion.
Next Week
Weather
Not so long ago, there was a big buzz about the final week of January, because lots of longer range weather forecast models were suggesting that we would replace the mild S'ly regime with a cold (potentially wintry) E'ly. Well sorry, snow lovers, it seems that we will be stuck with the mild and unsettled scenario for another week. Monday morning (and maybe a few other moments) being calm and near windless, but the vast majority of the week having winds of between force 4 and force 6 in strength, and SSE'ly to WSW'ly in direction. This means that we are in for some rainfall pretty much every day, whether that be brief but intense showers, or longer spells of drizzly rain. Daily temps will therefore peaking between 9 and 11°C, and overnight temps will typically fall to lows of between 6 and 8°C. The mildest part of the Island usually being Town.
Surf and the Water
Another week of solid surf every day, currently forecast to be most massive on Thursday and Friday, after a rather colossal low pressure system has consumed the North Atlantic for a couple of days mid-week. Tides will be relatively small though, with highs around midday at the start of the working week, and around late afternoon at the end (ranging in height between 7.3m and 8m).
The forecast update will most likely be on Sunday…
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