Monday
Weather
A lovely gentle start to the day, with a likely dry and reasonably bright morning and, most importantly, very little wind. At dawn the SE’ly will be about light force 2, and then by lunchtime it will just touch moderate force 4. The afternoon and evening will be relatively rough though, with that wind gradually increasing to strong force 6, and the majority of that period being very wet. Temperatures will peak at about 10-11°C well after sunset, and then remain above 9°C right through the night. The lowest temperature (5-6°C) will be during the morning, but that’s when the weather will be finest, so it shouldn’t feel too unpleasant.
Surf and the Water
Big clean surf is very much the norm at the moment, so there are going to be some surfers with very achy shoulders right now, but we all know that we have to grab it while we can. On this day it will become easier in terms of waved size as the day progresses, but more difficult in terms of wind… 6 feet with a gentle offshore breeze at dawn, 4 feet with a strong offshore by dusk. Sea-swimmers will definitely best to go for breakfast time, when the wind is lightest… Pembroke probably being the best location of all. High water will be around 11:20am (7.9m). The two low waters will be at 5:15am and 5:45pm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
These two days will be drier than most, with only one or two brief showers brushing past, whilst the vast majority of both the days and the nights will be dry and at least partially clear. The wind coming straight up from the south, until it backs to a SE’ly on Wednesday afternoon. The wind strength generally being fresh force 5, making the mildness (generally a flat-line temperature between 9-11°C) only feel pleasant in sheltered spots.
Surf and the Water
Tuesday’s surf will increase from about 6 feet to 10 feet and then Wednesdays will remain that kind of massive throughout… a fresh offshore wind throughout. Once again the north coast will probably offer the best conditions for swimmers. Windsurfing and kitesurfing conditions should be good throughout. Tides will be high at lunchtime (7.5m and 7.2m respectively). Low tides will be around dawn.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
The main difference between these two days and the previous, is that the showers will be much more frequent and a bit heavier. Wind-wise, we are looking at a force 3-4 SSE’ly on Thursday and then a force 4-5 SW’ly on Friday. The temperature being roughly the same on these two days as the previous, the favoured coasts switching from the west on Thursday to the east on Friday.
Surf and the Water
These two days, especially Thursday, are currently expected to have phenomenally huge waves. It’s difficult to put a number on it, especially considering the uncertainty. However, suffice to say, the west coast surf will be far too big for mere mortals, but L’Ancresse could be absolutely classic… clean offshore breezes there, on both days. Swimmers will find the best conditions at Fermain or Havelet. Low water will be in the mid-mornings, high water in the late afternoons (7.4m and 7.8m respectively).
The Weekend
Weather
It looks as though we might just be treated to a couple of radically different days… sunny with light force 3 NW’ly breezes). However, there is expected to be a spell of strong S’ly winds and heavy rain on Saturday night, so it wouldn’t take too much of a shift in the pattern to bring that grotty weather into daylight hours. So at the moment we can hope for some calm loveliness, but it wouldn’t be particularly wise to expect it. Either way, we are probably going to have another couple of days that peak around the 10°C mark.
Surf and the Water
Surfers will find that the wind is probably lighter but more onshore, but with plenty of swell remaining from the previous colossal days, there should be some decent options which will become more identifiable nearer the time. All high tides will be slightly before dawn and after dusk (increasing from 8.4m on Saturday to 9m on Sunday). Low tides will be around midday.
The next forecast update will be on Thursday morning…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway