Sunday
Weather
The overnight rain will probably have cleared by 9am, if not 8am, but the rest of the day will be mainly cloudy… the odd sunny interval but nothing as widespread or prolonged as on Saturday afternoon. Just the slim chance of some spits and spots of light rain when the cloud is most extensive, but the greater likelihood is to stay dry from 9am onward. Winds are uncertain, with a shallow low pressure system passing over the area. Some models predict a moderate force 4 SW’ly wind in the morning, veering NW’ly in the afternoon. Other models predict variable or vaguely similar directions, but with mush less strength… only light force 1-3. At the moment I would say that the stronger wind is more likely. Max temp 10-11°C. Min temp 4-5°C with the slight risk of ground frost in places.
Surf and the Water
The uncertainty of the wind throws some uncertainty on the cleanliness of the surf. However, my current expectation is that clean waves are more likely than choppy, especially in the morning. On the west coast, we are generally looking at 6 foot sets. On the north coast, we will hopefully see a few 2-footers. Swimming conditions will be good in the more sheltered bays, especially along the east coast. High water will be 9m at 6am and 8.9m at 6:30pm. Low water will be at lunchtime.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
An area of low pressure will move across mouth of the Channel late Monday and early Tuesday, meaning that the we will have a spell of very wet weather and fairly brisk winds, bookended by a about half days of much drier weather early Monday and later Tuesday. It’s all going to be cloudy though, with the sunshine struggling to find any gaps at all. Winds will ESE’ly on Monday (light force 3 increasing to fresh force 5), then S’ly on Tuesday (light force 3 to moderate force 4 throughout). Monday’s max temp will be a rather late and limp 8-9°C in the evening. Then Tuesday will hold steady around 9-10°C throughout the day and the night.
Surf and the Water
Super-clean surf on the west coast… 6 feet at the start of Monday and the end of Tuesday, but picking up to about 8 feet for a time on Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning. The north coast should have some decent 2-footers for much of the time too. Winds will mean that swimmers will also prefer the north and west coasts, but obviously they will need to seek the natural harbours that provide shelter from the swell. Late afternoon Monday looks like the moment for windsurfing and kitesurfing. Monday’s high tides will be around 7am and pm, Tuesday’s around 8am and pm (ranging between 9.3m and 9.8m). Low tides will be in the early afternoons.
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
Not a huge amount of change, SSE’ly winds for the majority of the period, ranging from moderate force 4 at their weakest, and strong force 6 to 7 at their most lively (probably Thursday). Showers will come and go, some of them merging into longer spells of rain and possibly being very heavy at times. The wettest period of all being most likely on Thursday afternoon and evening. Some sunshine might sneak though at times, but as my words suggest, they will only be a minority of moments. Temperatures will generally fluctuate between 8 and 10°C.
Surf and the Water
Continuing the run of clean and powerful surf, ranging from 3-4 feet at the smallest moment (probably Thursday) and 6-8 feet at the biggest. Lots of great opportunities for windsurfers and kitesurfers. Not easy for swimmers though… probably best at L’Ancresse Bay around the high tides. Highs will gradually reduce from 9.8m on Wednesday morning to 8.7m on Friday evening (Wednesday and Thursday morning rush hour, could be very messy along the east coast). Low tides will be in the mid-afternoons.
The Weekend
Weather
Most likely a story of sunshine and showers, with mostly moderate S’ly winds. Therefore, no great changes from the majority of what we experienced through January and the first week of February. Temperatures probably peaking continuing to fluctuate between 8 and 10°C.
Surf and the Water
Clean 6 foot surf on the west coast, most probably with reasonable swimming conditions on the north. Tides will be medium-sized… high in the mid-mornings, low in the late afternoons.
The next forecast update is expected to be on Tuesday evening…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway