Sunday
Weather
An uncertain day with respect to showers. Much like Saturday, there will be many more dry hours than wet hours, and there is the chance of a full-blown thunderstorm. However, the chance is much much smaller, because rather than travelling from France to England, they will simply travel from Brittany to Normandy, quite possibly only lightly brushing the Channel Islands around lunchtime. Aside from that, the division of cloud and sunshine will most likely be such that the afternoon is much sunnier than the morning, and with only the gentlest of SSW’ly breezes, the 16-17°C max temperature should feel very pleasant indeed. The evening looks good for a barbecue too, with another stunning sunset followed by a relatively mild night (10-11°C for the most likely minimum).
Surf and the Water
Maybe some 1 foot waves for surfers, winds will be very light once again so even the most meagre portion of swell will arrive unhindered. Swimming conditions will be decent too. Tides are large at the moment thanks to the Flower Moon of May, but nothing too crazy. High water being about 8.8m at 8:20am and 8:30pm. Low water at 2:40pm.
Bank Holiday Monday
Weather
The sunniest day of the long weekend and, at this stage, it looks like the most dependably driest. Barely a breath of breeze, meaning that the 16-17°C max will feel delicious in all parishes. Quite chilly overnight though, as a N’ly breeze develops, wafting cooler air into the area, and allow temperatures to fall to min of 8-9°C.
Surf and the Water
Once again, some 1 foot waves will be possible for surfers, with very light winds making them glassy smooth. Swimming conditions will be beautiful again. Tidal movements still large but beginning to decline somewhat. High water being about 8.5m at 8:50am and 9pm. Low water around 3pm.
Tuesday
Weather
A light force 3 N’ly breeze will bring a day of sunny spells and isolated showers. Relatively chilly air, with a max temp of only 14-15°C, will make it well worth taking a trip to the south coast, to maximise the sunshine and minimize the breeze.
Surf and the Water
No surf whatsoever I’m afraid. Light N’ly breezes making the south coast the smoothest and loveliest place to go for a swim. The air rather cold too, meaning that it will also be a bonus to have the extra exposure to the sun down there. Tides will be 8.2m at 8:20am and 8:30pm. Low water at 3:30pm.
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
A chance of showers on all three days, especially Wednesday, but they will be few and far between during the mornings and the overnight periods, and entirely absent during the afternoons, when the French mainland will monopolise the rainfall potential. Wednesday will have the same wind as Tuesday, leading to an even lower max temp of only 13-14°C. Thursday and Friday almost windless, meaning that the temperature will depend entirely upon the wind to cloud ratio, but my best estimate is that max temps will be in the 14-16°C range, and the min temps in the 6-9°C range.
Surf and the Water
It currently looks like flat surf for Wednesday and Thursday, but there is the chance of a small groundswell pushing in for Friday. Light winds will make for lovely swimming conditions throughout, but especially in the mid to late mornings, when the tides are high (7.9m, 7.5m and 7.1m respectively). Low tides will be in the late afternoons.
The next forecast update will most likely be on Tuesday…
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