Saturday
Weather
Long sunny spells and a few brief, possibly thundery, showers… the heaviest of which look likely to be in the late afternoon. Much like the week we’ve just had, the wind will be a fresh force 5 SSW’ly for the most part, picking up to a gusty force 6 when the showers sweep through. Max temp 11-12°C, min temp 8-9°C, but always feeling a bit cooler unless you can find some decent shelter from the wind (Pleinmont or Fermain would be good for that).
Surf and the Water
The tidal range will continue to reduce in size, with a high of just 8.7m at 9:30am and a low of 2.4m at 4pm. However, the surf will be much bigger than the previous couple of days, with clean 8-10 foot waves on the west coast and some smaller but even cleaner waves on the north-coast.
Sunday
Weather
Another day of sunshine and showers. Just a few small differences from Saturday… the wind will moderate slightly to a force 4 SW’ly, only picking up to force 5 when the odd shower sweeps through. These showers look likely to be most frequent and heavy during the morning, then lighter and more isolated in the afternoon. I’m afraid that’s not an ongoing trend though, because we will then have a much longer spell of rain during the night, leaving us with some pretty hefty puddles on Monday morning.
Surf and the Water
Similar size surf to Saturday's but the tidal range will continue to shrink, with a high of just 8.2m at 10:10am and a low of 2.8m at 4:40pm.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
A couple of very mild days, with the temperature generally hovering between 11 and 13°C throughout. The air will also be very moist, brought all the way from the mid Atlantic, by a force 4-6 SW’ly wind. During these days, we can expect almost every kind of wetness, from fog through misty drizzle, moderate rain to occasional heavy downpours. What I don’t expect to see is sunshine, except perhaps around sunrise and sunset, when the cloud-sheet could be illuminated by a brief blast of orange.
Surf and the Water
A steady run of medium-large waves of medium-good quality. Generally around 6 feet on the west coast and surfable throughout daylight hours, thanks to a relatively small tidal range, with highs of 7.6m at 11am on Monday, then 7.2m at midday on Tuesday.
Wednesday to Christmas Day
Weather
It’s not quite going to turn Dickensian, and I doubt that you’ll be using your tea-trays for anything other than serving tea and biscuits. However, we are going to see a very aptly-timed shift to a colder regime. Looking at the bigger picture, we will see the development of a large dry high-pressure system over the Atlantic, elbowing the wet and windy low-pressure system into Belgium on Wednesday and on to Eastern Europe on Thursday and Friday. On Wednesday, that low-pressure system will be close enough that we can expect lots of showery rain, on a very strong (perhaps gale force) WNW’ly wind. Then on Christmas Eve, we will probably have sunshine and isolated showers, with a fresh NNW’ly wind. And finally on Christmas Day, we will probably be treated to an even finer day, with just a moderate N’ly. The max temperatures will probably take a daily tumble, peaking at 10, then 9, then 8°C. The sheltered coasts will always feel more pleasant than the exposed ones, so if you are planning a walk or a swim on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, then the south coast will definitely be the place to go (Boxing Day predictions will have to wait until the next update).
Surf and the Water
A gradual shrinkage in the surf and major decline in quality. The only hope of clean waves will be in a novelty south-coast session towards dusk on Wednesday or perhaps around dawn on Thursday. The tidal range will be very small, with highs of roughly 7m around 1pm on Wednesday, 2pm on Christmas Eve and 3pm on Christmas day,
The next forecast update will be on Sunday evening…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway