Christmas Eve
Weather
Much sunnier skies than the previous days, with only the smallest risk of a shower or two in the afternoon. However, the most noticeable difference will probably be the change in temperature, which will really be accentuated by the fresh force 5 to strong force 6 N’ly wind. If you want to minimise that wind and maximise that sunshine, then simply head to the south-coast cliff-paths for a very pleasant walk.
Surf and the Water
There’s a slim chance of enough leftover swell for a few nice south-coast waves in the morning. However, apart from that, it’s probably time to hang up your wetsuit and forget about it for a few days. Of course, if you’re a sea-swimmer then you’re far too hardcore for wetsuits anyway, and there will be some lovely conditions for a dip on the south coast at any time of day, but I think the real rime choice will be Saint’s Bay in the early afternoon (high water will be roughly 6.9m at 2:10pm).
Christmas Day
Weather
More cool sunshine on Christmas Day, brought to us by a force 3-4 NNW’ly breeze. The temperature will start at a mere 5°C and then only pick up to a max of 7-8°C, but most places should feel more comfortable for walks etc than they did on Christmas Eve. However, the south coast will still be the cream of the crop. The morning should be better for an outing than the afternoon, because it looks as though skies will gradually become cloudy though the afternoon.
Surf and the Water
It doesn’t look like there will be any surf to speak of on this Christmas day, but once again there should be some nice swimming conditions on the south coast, if you fancy a bit of practice before the big Boxing Day dip at Cobo. Small tides again, with just a 7.1m high at 3:10pm
Boxing Day
Weather
The overnight increase in cloud and wind will lead to a milder dawn temp of 8-9°C but, through the rest of the day, the grey skies and occasional blustery showers will only allow the tiniest rise to 10°C. I’m afraid that organised swim at Cobo is set to be a bracing one, because the strong force 6 W’ly wind will be coming straight off the sea.
Surf and the Water
If desperation for a surf is getting the better of you then you will find some very choppy 2-4 foot waves in the afternoon. High water will be roughly 7.6m at 4pm.
Beyond Boxing Day
Weather
It looks as though W’ly gales will bring persistent heavy rain on Sunday morning, followed by further showers in the afternoon. Total rainfall of 20-30mm is expected across the day, so with a high chance of localised flooding, it would be a good idea to find a spare half-hour over Christmas, to make sure that the gutters and drains are clear in your immediate area. From Monday until New Year, we will probably have a daily cocktail of sunshine and showers, with a consistent NW’ly wind bringing temperatures that are on the cool side of average for this time of year (daily maxima of 7-9°C and nightly minima of 5-7°C).
Surf and the Water
We will have some massive but messy swell on Sunday and Monday, but once that big low-pressure system has moved off to Scandinavia and high-pressure is stretched all the way from Portugal to Greenland, we can only expect short-period sloppy wind-waves for the next few days. The chances that these waves will have enough power to wrap into the sheltered south-coast bays are very slim, so it’s probably going to be lovely for our sea-swimmers down there, but rather frustrating for surfers.
The next forecast update will be on Boxing Day…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway