Sunday
Weather
Storm Bella’s worst winds will come in the small hours of the morning… SW’ly gale force 8-9 with gusts of 60-70mph. There will be some prolonged and heavy rain at the same time, so there’s a high chance that a few trees will be brought to the ground and you will probably find leaks in your cars and houses that you never knew were there. The heaviest burst of rain will probably be just before dawn, and then we will gradually shift towards sunshine and showers for the second half of the day. Through the afternoon, we will have a much more manageable wind (force 5 WNW’ly), but those showers will continue to pack a punch, with hail and thunder being quite likely at times.
Surf and the Water
Some very big waves on all coasts except for the east (particularly the west). On the whole, the conditions will be far too choppy and difficult to manage. However, if you keep an eye on the sheltered nooks, then there could be a novelty wave or two for the more intrepid surfers. As for swimming, I think it would definitely be best to stay on the east coast. Low water will be about 3.2m at 10:50am and high water will be about 8.2m at 4:50pm.
Monday
Weather
After the wind had simmered down nicely, I’m afraid it’s going to strengthen up again. Not quite to the same extent as Storm Bella… this time we are probably looking at a force 6-7 NW’ly. As for the weather, well that’s going to be a continuing mix of sunshine and heavy showers. Ooh and don’t forget the rainbows (especially if you got a new camera for Christmas). Max temp 8°C (that’s about 2-3°C cooler than Saturday and Sunday).
Surf and the Water
There’s a high chance of finding some rideable nuggets in the various cosy corners of the south coast. Probably nothing special and probably best-suited to bodyboarding. However, there’s certainly the potential for some fun. Once again swimmers will probably prefer to avoid that swell, and stick to the east-coast bays like Fermain or Havelet. Low water will be about 2.8m at 11:30am and high water will be about 8.4m at 5:30pm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
A couple more sunshine and showers days (although sometimes those showers could merge into a longer spell of rain). Temperatures should remain marginally below average, probably peaking at 8°C on each day and falling to roughly 5°C on each night. The wind should continue to blow from a NW’ly direction, meaning that the south and east coasts will be the nicest for a good walk. However, it will only be moderate force 4 or occasionally fresh force 5, so all areas should feel a bit more comfortable than they did on Monday.
Surf and the Water
Although still rather ragged, a shrinking swell and weakening wind will mean that the west-coast could be worth a surf… (choppy 5-6 foot waves on Tuesday, then choppy 4-5 foot waves on Wednesday). The tidal range will be getting a bit bigger, but the highs will be before dawn and after dusk. As for the lows, they will be about 2.4m at 12:10pm on Tuesday, then 2.2m at 12:50pm on Wednesday.
NY’s Eve and NY’s Day
Weather
Well I’m sorry if this is sounding rather repetitive, but it’s looking like another mixed bag of sunshine, showers and rainbows. There will be a noticeable couple of differences though, and they are… that the wind will veer to a gentle NE’ly and, as a result, the temperature will drop even further below average, such that we could see a couple of proper frosty nights and the daily maxima will only be about 6-7 degrees.
Surf and the Water
Probably some cleaner and slightly prettier west-coast waves. However, they will only be about 1-2 feet and very week, so if you are planning a New Year’s Day surf then it will probably be just as disappointing as Christmas Day was, so it might be better to just go for a quick swim instead. The best swim spots will certainly be along the south coast, or in the northern corners of the various west-coast bays. The tidal highs will be roughly 9m shortly before dawn, and the tidal lows will be roughly 2m in the early afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday evening…
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