Monday
Weather
Cloudy but dry and reasonably bright in the morning. Probably more gloomy in the afternoon but most likely dry until drizzle arrives in the overnight period. The wind will be W’ly all day, increasing to force 3 at dawn to force 5 by dusk. This will bring milder air than we have had for quite some time, with the temperature gradually rising to a daytime max of 9°C and then an overnight max of 10°C. Anybody heading out for a walk, a run or a bike-ride will find that the east coast is the most sheltered and comfortable.
Surf and the Water
I doubt that the waves will be big enough to surf but they will begin to grow, in preparation for some better days to come. Sea swimmers will find the nicest conditions around Havelet or Fermain. The dawn and dusk sessions probably being the best because that’s when the tide will be highest. Low water will be 2.1m at 11:10am and high water will be 8.4m at 5:10pm.
Tuesday
Weather
The wind will veer NW’ly and increase to force 6 at times, bringing a steady feed of mild but soggy air. Skies will be overcast throughout, with frequent bouts of drizzly rain. 10°C should be the max temperature in most parts of the islands, but St Peter Port will probably sneak up to 11°C at times. Similarly mild and sheltered places to go for a walk, will be Fermain, Moulin Huet, Saints Bay and Petit Bot.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be 3-5 feet and very messy. However, it’s been so small for so long now that I’m sure some people will be happy to have a bash around in that. As for the swimmers, the south and east coast will provide the smoothest water, especially around dawn and dusk, when the tide will be highest. Low water will be 1.7m at 12:10pm and high water will be 8.7m at 6pm.
Wednesday
Weather
With a force 5 W’ly wind bringing really mild air (10-11°C) over relatively cold sea-water, we are bound to see quite a lot of mist and hill-fog. However, when we look at the bigger picture, we see that a ridge of high pressure will be covering the area, and this does mean that there won’t be much depth to the cloud, so hopefully the drizzle will be minimal and we might even see the odd moment of weak sunshine breaking through. Much like the previous days, Town will be the most mild and comfortable place to hang out.
Surf and the Water
Largish lumpy surf on the west coast again, much like Tuesday but fairly clean on Wednesday. As for the swimmers, the prime locations will definitely be Havelet and Fermain around dawn and dusk; the two high tides being 9.1m at 6:30am and 8.9m at 6:50pm.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
High pressure will push most of the cloud and murk away to the east, at some time on Thursday, with a force 4-5 NNW’ly wind bringing cooler but much brighter conditions by the end of the day. I dare say an afternoon walk along the sheltered south coast could be particularly lovely. Moving on to Friday, it should feel equally lovely on all coasts, because the wind is expected to fall very light and variable and we will probably see lengthy spells of sunshine. 8-9°C will be the most likely max temperature but, without any wind-chill, it will probably feel like the nicest day of the week.
Surf and the Water
The surf should be 4-6 feet on both days. Thursday’s waves will be very messy Friday’s should be lovely and clean. Swimmers will find that the south coast is best on Thursday, and then everywhere should be equally nice on Friday. The tides will be about 9.3m high around dawn on both days, and they will be about 1.2m low in the early afternoons.
The Weekend
Weather
After all that talk of high pressure and settled weather on Thursday and Friday, it’s now time to bring the nasty stuff back. Yes indeed, it looks as though next weekend will mark the transition back to the kind of cold weather that we had through the first week of January. A low pressure system is expected to develop over Northern Ireland and then push into France, dumping loads of snow over the English Pennines and Moors, before dumping even more over the Alps. Typically for us, the weekend is only likely to be rain and sleet. However, the following week is extremely uncertain at the moment, so who knows what exciting stuff that might bring.
Surf and the Water
The wind details are very uncertain at the moment, so there is little value I can add to this section. Check the updates nearer the time. The tides are easy to forecast though, with highs around breakfast time (roughly 9.3m on Saturday and 9m on Sunday) and lows in the mid-late afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway