Thursday
Weather
A cloudier day than previously expected. However, the good news is that the rain is still expected to clear off pretty early in the day, probably not persisting any longer than 10 or 10:30am. When that rain clears through, we shall see a wind-change from a force 5-6 W’ly to an equally strong NW’ly, and this will also bring a reduction in temperature from about 10-11°C early morning, to about 8-9°C through the rest of the day. If you fancy a more sheltered and comfortable afternoon walk, then best head down to Fermain or to the south coast cliff-paths.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be a horrible mess, but there will be plenty of swell, so a bit of south-coast exploration, might turn up some novelty gems in the afternoon, especially if you are a bodysurfer or a bodyboarder. As for swimming, an afternoon dip at Saints or Moulin Huet will probably be the preferred options. High water will be about 9.4m at 7:10am Low water will be about 1.3m at 1:40pm.
Friday
Weather
We will stay in the cool airmass (max temps only 7-8°C) but there should be some brightness or sunshine and, most importantly, the wind will be almost calm, meaning that all parts of the island should feel equally pleasant.
Surf and the Water
Clean 4-5’ surf on the west coast and good swimming conditions all around the island. High water will be about 9.3m at 7:50am Low water will be about 1.2m at 2:30pm.
The Weekend
Weather
All week we have tended to alternate between wet days and dry days and it looks as though that rollercoaster ride will continue through the weekend. Saturday will be very wet for much of the day, due to the close proximity of a rather active low-pressure system. The wind will be a strong force 6-7 S’ly around dawn, veering to a force 5-6 NW’ly by dusk. Sunday will then maintain the NW’ly airflow, but it should moderate to force 3-4 and the weather should be dry with partial sunshine, making it a much better day to get out and about. Max temps should be 10°C on Saturday and 9°C on Sunday.
Surf and the Water
Look out for a splashy east-coast tide first thing on Saturday morning. Nothing too threatening, but something to be aware of. Saturday’s surf will be interesting, with 3-4’ waves and an offshore wind at Vazon during the morning, then with an increasing swell there might be some semi-decent south-coast options during the afternoon. Sunday might also be good on the south coast, but with a decreasing swell the west-coast might be a better bet, considering that the onshore wind will not be particularly strong.
Next Week
Weather
Monday morning simply looks like a pleasantly dry and bright continuation of Sunday. Then at some point in either the afternoon or evening, the wind will back to a SW’ly direction and we will see a fairly lengthy spell of rain. Tuesday and Wednesday then promise strong (near-gale) S’ly winds and frequent heavy showers. This is because a fairly deep low will be centred over southern England. We will be on the mild side of that low, with temperatures generally around 10°C throughout. However, Central and Northern Britain will be on the cold side and there could be quite a lot of snow there. So don’t be surprised to see plenty of white scenes on social media, but I’m afraid there is currently no suggestion of it heading in our direction. Thursday and Friday will probably see a continuation of the heavy showers, brought to us by a very strong W’ly flow, which will only be marginally colder than the first half of the week.
Surf and the Water
Big clean surf in the first half of the week, then even bigger choppy surf in the second half. Fantastic windsurfing conditions throughout. Sea swimmers should seek as much shelter as they can find, which will probably mean heading to Fermain Bay as close to high tide as possible.
The next forecast update will be on Friday evening.
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway