Monday
Weather
Daylight hours will be mostly dry and cloudy. Every now and then, the cloud might be thick enough for a spit and spot of light rain but, equally, it will sometimes be thin enough to give a little brightness. The proper rain will not arrive until shortly before dusk and then it will be on and off through the evening and night, with a couple of heavy bursts later on, making for pretty large puddle by Tuesday morning. Throughout the day and the night, there will be very little change in the wind direction (SW’ly), but there will be a steady increase in strength; light force 3 for the morning commute, fresh force 5 for the evening commute and then strong force 6 for the majority of the night. The temperature also picking up from about 6-7°C at dawn, to about 9-10°C for the night time.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be 2-3’ and increasingly clean as the day progresses. The tidal movements will be smaller than recent days, but still large enough to make a big difference to the nature of your session. High water will be about 8.4m at 9:50am. Low water will be about 2.2m at 4:20pm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
A strong force 6-7 SSW’ly wind throughout both days and nights. The wind-chill effect will mean that this doesn’t feel very warm, but it will actually keep the temperature relatively high, at 10-11°C right up until the end of Wednesday night, when a cold front is expected to sweep through. Tuesday’s rain and drizzle will be well-timed (rather like Monday’s) falling mainly during the night time, but I’m afraid we are due for a full day of it on Wednesday. Due to the mildness of the air, it will also be misty for a lot of the time, especially on the high ground of the island.
Surf and the Water
Really great wind-surfing conditions. As for surfing, well the waves will be pretty big and clean, 4-6’ on Tuesday then 6-8’ on Wednesday. However, it will be a bit of a battle to paddle against that wind, so the heavier boards will certainly have the advantage. High water will be in the late mornings and low water will be around dusk. Cold-water swimmers will probably find that the bathing pools are the best option.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
The wind will ease to just a fresh force 5 or moderate force 4, but the directional change will be most important (WSW’ly on Thursday and WNW’ly on Friday), because that will bring colder air over the islands, which will in-turn change the nature of the weather; moving away from persistent drizzly rain and towards sunshine, showers and rainbows. The east coast will generally be the most comfortable area to get out for a walk, but the south coast will be almost as pleasant on Friday. Max daytime temperatures will probably be 9°C and 8°C respectively, and the overnight minima will probably be 6°C and 5°C respectively.
Surf and the Water
Very choppy west-coast surf. However, the north coast could be well worth a look on Thursday, when the waves will be at their biggest. As for the tidal movements, they will be very small, with highs of about 7m around noon.
The Weekend
Weather
With small-scale low pressure systems likely to cross the Channel from west to east, we are likely to see a large variation in wind strength and direction. As a result, the temperature is also rather uncertain. However, I’m not really expecting it to get any colder than the previous couple of days. More likely, it will stay just the same or get slightly milder. What’s much more certain unfortunately, is that we will probably see a lot of rain, with Saturday likely to be the wettest day of the entire week.
Surf and the Water
The wind direction is very uncertain, so the west-coast surf is equally likely to be clean as a whistle or a horrible mess. Most probably, each day will consist of a bit of both. Fortunately, the tidal movements will be very small, with lows of around 4m in the early mornings and highs of around 6.8m in the mid-afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway