Thursday
Weather
The mist and drizzle should give way to drier air and better visibility around dawn. However, the sky will still be very cloudy and the odd spell of mizzle or fog still won’t be out of the question. If we are going to see a brief snippet of brighter sky then this will most likely be at lunchtime and the 11°C will feel really pleasant, especially in Town. Going into the night, we shall see a brief spell of rather heavy rain, but this will sweep through before midnight, leaving only a slim risk of any further showers. If anybody is still up at that time of night, then the high cloud will allow for some fabulous moonlight and it will feel rather mild, with the temperature staying right up at 9-10°C.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be about 6 feet or more, but rather choppy in the cross-shore wind. There might just be some small but rideable waves on the north coast too. Fermain and Havelet will certainly offer the best shelter for our winter swimmers. High water will be about 8.5m before dawn and after dusk and low tide will be about 2m at lunchtime.
Friday
Weather
Sunny spells and just a small risk of a brief squally shower in The morning. The wind will be a force 5-6 W’ly, gradually easing to a force 4 through the afternoon. The temperature peaking at 10-11°C, so probably feeling pleasant in sheltered eastern parts. Once again, the overnight period is when the most rain will fall. However, this time it’s going to be much more prolonged than in Thursday night, and it will be accompanied by a fresh S’ly wind.
Surf and the Water
The waves will be bigger but also messier than Thursday, on the west and north coasts. However, once again, the east-coast waters will be relatively smooth for our swimmers. High water will be about 8.8m before dawn and after dusk and low tide will be about 1.6m at lunchtime.
The Weekend
Weather
With a deep low-pressure system sweeping through the area on Saturday daytime and then another on Sunday late-afternoon/evening, it’s looking very wet during those times. The in-between bit (Saturday evening to Sunday lunchtime) should be quite the opposite; largely dry and occasionally clear of cloud. Wind strength and direction are quite uncertain, but this is the sequence that is currently expected; a fresh to strong SSE’ly through most of Saturday, veering to a strong NE’ly in the evening, backing to a moderate SE’ly on Sunday morning, then veering to a fresh SW’ly on Sunday night.
Surf and the Water
With high spring tides around dawn and mid evening, it looks as though the east coast could see some messy splashes and spray on both of Saturday’s tides and then possibly on Sunday evening too. The west-coast surf should be super clean throughout daylight hours; 4-6 feet on Saturday, potentially picking up to 6-8 feet on Sunday (when the north coast might also have something to offer).
Next Week
Weather
Although with low confidence, it looks as though the week will stay on the mild side of average for early February. Winds will be mostly SW’ly; often very strong in the first half of the week but much lighter and more variable in direction through the second half of the week. Likewise, the majority of the rainfall is also expected to fall in the first half of the week.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf looks large and pretty clean for the entire week. The tidal highs will gradually taper away from 9.3m at breakfast time on Monday to 7.7m at lunchtime on Friday.
The next forecast update will be on Friday evening…
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Swim Conditions
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